Garuda Lions
Today
League Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Stoke City vs Hull City

1 – 1 Full time

bet365 Stadium, StokeReferee: John Busby, England

Stoke City 28%
Draw 28%
Hull City 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Stoke City vs Hull City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Hull City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStoke CityDrawHull City
Model14.5%24.4%61.0%
Market32.6%29.1%38.4%
Final28.1%27.9%44.0%
Edge-18.0%-4.6%+22.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Hull City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Hull City below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stoke City ↓ / Hull City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 12% 12% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 8%

Stoke City and Hull City expected goals

Stoke City 0.78
Hull City 1.84

Total expected goals: 2.61

Stoke City and Hull City attack and defence ratings

Stoke City

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.33 +33%

Hull City

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stoke City vs Hull City: result vs prediction

Stoke City 1 – 1 Hull City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Stoke City vs Hull City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hull City 44.0% 2.27 +22.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score No 53.3% 1.88 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.6% 2.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stoke City28.1%
Draw27.9%
Hull City44.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
Both teams to scoreYes46.7%
No53.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.0%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)71.9%
Handicap -1Hull City win36.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.6%
Loss38.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-112.4%
0-212.2%
1-111.6%

Stoke City vs Hull City stats

Stoke City and Hull City recent form

newest first
Stoke City LLWLLL
Hull City WWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stoke City vs Hull City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Stoke City wins 1Draws 3Hull City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-01Hull CityStoke CityEngland Championship0-1
2025-11-29Stoke CityHull CityEngland Championship1-2
2025-02-01Hull CityStoke CityChampionship1-2
2024-09-20Stoke CityHull CityChampionship1-3
2024-03-29Hull CityStoke CityChampionship0-2
2023-09-24Stoke CityHull CityChampionship1-3
2023-02-11Stoke CityHull CityChampionship0-0
2022-09-13Hull CityStoke CityChampionship0-3
2022-01-16Hull CityStoke CityChampionship0-2
2021-09-25Stoke CityHull CityChampionship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stoke City vs Hull City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 29.1%, away 38.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.80 3.25 2.46
1xBet 2.97 3.24 2.56
Bet365 2.90 3.25 2.45
BetVictor 2.90 3.30 2.45
Betano 2.82 3.20 2.47
Betfair 2.80 3.30 2.40
Dafabet 2.90 3.30 2.55
Marathonbet 2.97 3.24 2.54
Pinnacle 2.94 3.31 2.53
SBO 2.85 3.09 2.30
Superbet 2.82 3.20 2.47
Unibet 2.90 3.25 2.45
William Hill 2.80 3.00 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▼ -0.15
X 3.25 ▲ +0.05
2 2.46 ▲ +0.12

9 snapshots recorded, from .