Southampton
vs
Stoke City
3 – 1 Full time
Southampton vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Stoke City
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.2% | 19.2% | 11.7% |
| Market | 58.2% | 23.1% | 18.7% |
| Final | 60.9% | 22.1% | 16.9% |
| Edge | +11.0% | -4.0% | -7.0% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Southampton and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Southampton
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Southampton vs Stoke City: result vs prediction
Southampton 3 – 1 Stoke City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 60.9% | 1.64 | +11.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 60.9% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Stoke City | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 47.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 30.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 9.0% |
Southampton vs Stoke City stats
Southampton and Stoke City recent form
| Southampton |
LWWDWD |
| Stoke City |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and Stoke City going into this match
Southampton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Stoke City record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Stoke City | Southampton | England Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Southampton | Stoke City | England Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 23.1%, away 18.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.02 |
| 888Sport | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.29 | 5.31 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.69 | 4.54 |
| Superbet | 1.63 | 4.15 | 5.00 |
| Unibet | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.80 |