Garuda Lions
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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Southampton vs West Ham

1 – 4 Full time

St. Mary's Stadium, SouthamptonReferee: Ruebyn Ricardo, England

Southampton 41%
Draw 26%
West Ham 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Southampton vs West Ham overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs West Ham

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySouthamptonDrawWest Ham
Model50.2%24.6%25.1%
Market38.2%26.4%35.4%
Final41.2%26.0%32.8%
Edge+12.0%-1.7%-10.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Southampton

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Southampton below the model: +12.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Southampton ↓ / West Ham → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 7% 2 7% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Southampton and West Ham expected goals

Southampton 1.85
West Ham 1.28

Total expected goals: 3.13

Southampton and West Ham attack and defence ratings

Southampton

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.82 -18%

West Ham

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Southampton vs West Ham: result vs prediction

Southampton 1 – 4 West Ham

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Southampton vs West Ham markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Southampton 41.2% 2.42 +12.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.9% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.0% 1.61 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Southampton41.2%
Draw26.0%
West Ham32.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%
Both teams to scoreYes62.0%
No38.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.2%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)58.8%
Handicap -1Southampton win28.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.6%
2-07.5%

Southampton vs West Ham stats

Southampton and West Ham recent form

newest first
Southampton WLWWDW
West Ham LDWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Southampton vs West Ham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Southampton wins 4Draws 4West Ham wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-19West HamSouthamptonPremier League1-1
2024-12-26SouthamptonWest HamPremier League0-1
2023-04-02West HamSouthamptonPremier League1-0
2022-10-16SouthamptonWest HamPremier League1-1
2022-03-02SouthamptonWest HamFA Cup3-1
2021-12-26West HamSouthamptonPremier League2-3
2021-09-11SouthamptonWest HamPremier League0-0
2021-05-23West HamSouthamptonPremier League3-0
2020-12-29SouthamptonWest HamPremier League0-0
2020-02-29West HamSouthamptonPremier League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Southampton vs West Ham odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 26.4%, away 35.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 3.55 2.68
1xBet 2.50 3.74 2.69
Bet365 2.50 3.60 2.55
BetVictor 2.50 3.60 2.63
Betano 2.50 3.50 2.62
Betfair 2.45 3.50 2.63
Dafabet 2.50 3.65 2.70
Marathonbet 2.53 3.74 2.66
Pinnacle 2.45 3.73 2.75
SBO 2.39 3.33 2.54
Superbet 2.45 3.50 2.65
Unibet 2.43 3.55 2.75
William Hill 2.40 3.30 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▼ -0.19
X 3.55 ▼ -0.05
2 2.65 ▲ +0.20

9 snapshots recorded, from .