Southampton
vs
Millwall
5 – 1 Full time
Southampton vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Millwall
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.5% | 29.5% | 42.0% |
| Market | 48.3% | 26.5% | 25.1% |
| Final | 43.4% | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| Edge | -19.9% | +3.0% | +16.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Southampton and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Southampton
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Southampton vs Millwall: result vs prediction
Southampton 5 – 1 Millwall
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 43.4% | 2.31 | -19.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 43.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Millwall | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 11.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 71.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Southampton vs Millwall stats
Southampton and Millwall recent form
| Southampton |
LWLWWD |
| Millwall |
WWWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and Millwall going into this match
Southampton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Southampton vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Southampton | Millwall | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Millwall | Southampton | England Championship | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-03 | Millwall | Southampton | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Southampton | Millwall | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Millwall | Southampton | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2014-08-26 | Millwall | Southampton | League Cup | 0-2 |
| 2012-03-17 | Millwall | Southampton | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2012-02-07 | Southampton | Millwall | FA Cup | 2-3 |
| 2012-01-28 | Millwall | Southampton | FA Cup | 1-1 |
| 2011-08-20 | Southampton | Millwall | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 26.5%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.58 | 3.77 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.08 | 3.22 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Unibet | 1.91 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .