Birmingham
vs
Southampton
1 – 1 Full time
| 45′ | Bright Osayi-Samuel | ||
| 45′ | K. Schlotterbeck | ||
| 55′ | A. Priske | ||
| 61′ | C. BraggJ. Ward-Prowse | ||
| 61′ | T. FellowsK. Matsuki | ||
| 69′ | C. LarinD. Mubama | ||
| 70′ | P. RobertsD. Gray | ||
| 72′ | Divin Mubama | ||
| 77′ | Jhon Solís | ||
| 81′ | L. ScienzaL. Dobbin | ||
| 86′ | C. VicenteE. Laird | ||
| 86′ | A. PriskeL. Vazquez | ||
| 87′ | J. StansfieldPaik Seung-Ho | ||
| 90′ | Luis Vázquez | ||
| 90′ | Nathan Wood |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 197 | Accurate passes | 407 |
Birmingham vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Southampton
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.6% | 23.2% | 51.2% |
| Market | 36.8% | 27.6% | 35.7% |
| Final | 34.0% | 26.5% | 39.5% |
| Edge | -11.1% | -4.4% | +15.5% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below the model: +15.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
Birmingham and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs Southampton: result vs prediction
Birmingham 1 – 1 Southampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 39.5% | 2.53 | +15.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 34.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Southampton | 39.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Birmingham vs Southampton stats
Birmingham and Southampton recent form
| Birmingham |
WLDDWD |
| Southampton |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Southampton going into this match
Birmingham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Southampton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Birmingham vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Birmingham | Southampton | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Southampton | Birmingham | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | Birmingham | Southampton | Championship | 3-4 |
| 2023-10-28 | Southampton | Birmingham | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2012-02-04 | Birmingham | Southampton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2011-09-18 | Southampton | Birmingham | Championship | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Southampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 27.6%, away 35.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.36 | 2.61 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.45 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.36 | 2.61 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.59 | 2.68 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.19 | 2.57 |
| Superbet | 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Unibet | 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .