Lincoln
vs
Southampton
1 – 1 Full time
| 43′ | Conor McGrandles | ||
| 44′ | Welington | ||
| 56′ | Ivan Varfolomeev | ||
| 62′ | C. LarinD. Mubama | ||
| 63′ | L. ScienzaS. Edozie | ||
| 64′ | I. VarfolomeevY. E. Konak | ||
| 64′ | S. BradleyR. Hackett-Fairchild | ||
| 64′ | R. StreetM. Ladefoged | ||
| 75′ | Freddie Draper | ||
| 76′ | C. McGrandlesT. Bayliss | ||
| 76′ | B. HouseC. Ogbene | ||
| 78′ | F. AzazL. Dobbin | ||
| 79′ | WelingtonR. Manning | ||
| 84′ | K. MatsukiN. Wood | ||
| 87′ | M. Ladefoged |
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 39 | Possession % | 61 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 240 | Accurate passes | 453 |
Lincoln vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln vs Southampton
| Probability | Lincoln | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 24.7% | 29.7% |
| Market | 23.5% | 24.5% | 52.0% |
| Final | 29.0% | 24.5% | 46.4% |
| Edge | +22.1% | +0.2% | -22.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lincoln and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Lincoln and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Lincoln
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lincoln vs Southampton: result vs prediction
Lincoln 1 – 1 Southampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lincoln vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 46.4% | 2.15 | -22.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 29.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Southampton | 46.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.3% |
| No | 34.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 70.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Lincoln vs Southampton stats
Lincoln and Southampton recent form
| Lincoln |
DWWLLW |
| Southampton |
DWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lincoln and Southampton going into this match
Lincoln record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Lincoln vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-20 | Southampton | Lincoln | League Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lincoln vs Southampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 24.6%, away 52.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.81 |
| 1xBet | 3.92 | 3.84 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.88 |
| Marathonbet | 3.94 | 3.84 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.02 | 4.07 | 1.85 |
| SBO | 3.50 | 3.26 | 1.80 |
| Unibet | 3.95 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .