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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 5

West Brom vs Watford

1 – 0 Full time

16′Martín Payero
34′Jimmy Morgan
36′J. Morgan
42′Ousmane Diakité
46′J. ZemuraE. Kayembe
59′A. EamesS. Coulibaly
63′Edo Kayembe
67′O. MaammaS. Mavididi
67′M. PayeroA. Nabizada
73′R. NzingoulaJ. Molumby
73′A. HeggeboF. Myhre
81′C. MephamN. Phillips
82′J. MorganB. Stewart
82′L. KjerrumgaardM. Doumbia
88′Nathaniel Phillips
89′Harry Whitwell
90′Isaac Price
90′Iker Bravo

The Hawthorns, West BromwichReferee: M. Salisbury

West Brom 57%
Draw 24%
Watford 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
5 Corners 4
18 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
2 Saves 3
380 Accurate passes 340

West Brom vs Watford overview

Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Watford

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWest BromDrawWatford
Model73.8%17.1%9.1%
Market51.2%26.1%22.6%
Final56.9%23.9%19.3%
Edge+22.6%-9.0%-13.6%

Confidence: Low

Why West Brom

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.79.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices West Brom below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

West Brom ↓ / Watford → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 12% 9% 3 10% 8% 4+ 11% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 4%

West Brom and Watford expected goals

West Brom 2.51
Watford 0.79

Total expected goals: 3.30

West Brom and Watford attack and defence ratings

West Brom

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Watford

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

West Brom vs Watford: result vs prediction

West Brom 1 – 0 Watford

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

West Brom vs Watford markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 West Brom 56.9% 1.76 +22.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.0% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.7% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 West Brom win 52.7% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2West Brom56.9%
Draw23.9%
Watford19.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%
Both teams to scoreYes51.2%
No48.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.7%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)43.1%
Handicap -1West Brom win52.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss26.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.6%
3-09.6%
2-19.2%

West Brom vs Watford stats

West Brom and Watford recent form

newest first
West Brom DLLWWW
Watford LDLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

West Brom and Watford going into this match

league record before kick-off

West Brom record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Watford record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

West Brom vs Watford head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2West Brom wins 4Draws 4Watford wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-21West BromWatfordEngland Championship3-0
2025-10-22WatfordWest BromEngland Championship2-1
2025-04-12West BromWatfordChampionship2-1
2024-12-15WatfordWest BromChampionship2-1
2024-04-01West BromWatfordChampionship2-2
2023-09-20WatfordWest BromChampionship2-2
2023-02-20WatfordWest BromChampionship3-2
2022-08-08West BromWatfordChampionship1-1
2021-07-24WatfordWest BromFriendlies Clubs0-0
2018-03-03WatfordWest BromPremier League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

West Brom vs Watford odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 26.2%, away 22.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.87 3.50 4.00
1xBet 1.83 3.58 4.13
Bet365 1.80 3.60 4.20
BetVictor 1.83 3.60 3.90
Betano 1.90 3.55 4.10
Betfair 1.75 3.60 4.60
Dafabet 1.89 3.65 4.20
Marathonbet 1.81 3.58 4.15
Pinnacle 1.85 3.72 4.41
SBO 1.84 3.12 3.53
Unibet 1.91 3.45 3.85
William Hill 1.85 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▼ -0.17
X 3.59 ▲ +0.25
2 4.14 ▲ +0.50

11 snapshots recorded, from .