Swansea
vs
Watford
2 – 0 Full time
| 8′ | Eom Ji-Sung | ||
| 25′ | Omar Haktab Traore | ||
| 29′ | A. Idah | ||
| 31′ | O. H. TraoreB. Mlacic | ||
| 46′ | A. NabizadaE. Bove | ||
| 57′ | E. JustM. Widell | ||
| 57′ | J. OpokuM. K. Yeo | ||
| 65′ | O. MaammaR. Vata | ||
| 67′ | A. IdahZ. Vipotnik | ||
| 68′ | Hector Kyprianou | ||
| 68′ | M. StamenicJ. Fulton | ||
| 80′ | Kévin Keben Biakolo | ||
| 83′ | I. BravoL. Kjerrumgaard | ||
| 86′ | S. WelshJ. Seelt | ||
| 90′ | Jordan Zemura |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 480 | Accurate passes | 303 |
Swansea vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swansea vs Watford
| Probability | Swansea | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.8% | 18.6% | 9.6% |
| Market | 50.2% | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| Final | 55.6% | 24.3% | 20.1% |
| Edge | +21.6% | -7.6% | -14.0% |
Why Swansea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Swansea below the model: +21.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swansea and Watford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Swansea and Watford attack and defence ratings
Swansea
Watford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swansea vs Watford: result vs prediction
Swansea 2 – 0 Watford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swansea vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 55.6% | 1.80 | +21.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 55.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Watford | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 49.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 28.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 3-0 | 9.7% |
Swansea vs Watford stats
Swansea and Watford recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swansea and Watford going into this match
Swansea record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Swansea vs Watford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Watford | Swansea | England Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Swansea | Watford | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-12 | Watford | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-05 | Swansea | Watford | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-06 | Watford | Swansea | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-24 | Swansea | Watford | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-12-30 | Swansea | Watford | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-05 | Watford | Swansea | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-05-08 | Watford | Swansea | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2021-01-02 | Swansea | Watford | Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swansea vs Watford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 26.2%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.87 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.58 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.58 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.67 | 4.13 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.33 | 3.87 |
| Superbet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .