Garuda Lions
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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 3

Watford vs West Ham

1 – 1 Full time

Vicarage Road, WatfordReferee: R. Madley

Watford 22%
Draw 23%
West Ham 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Watford vs West Ham overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs West Ham

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWatfordDrawWest Ham
Model14.3%18.8%66.8%
Market24.5%24.7%50.8%
Final21.9%23.3%54.8%
Edge-10.1%-5.9%+16.0%

Confidence: Low

Why West Ham

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices West Ham below the model: +16.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Watford ↓ / West Ham → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 7% 8% 1 8% 9% 8% 9% 2 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Watford and West Ham expected goals

Watford 1.11
West Ham 2.50

Total expected goals: 3.61

Watford and West Ham attack and defence ratings

Watford

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.56 +56%

West Ham

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Watford vs West Ham: result vs prediction

Watford 1 – 1 West Ham

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Watford vs West Ham markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 West Ham 54.8% 1.82 +16.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.5% 1.60 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 West Ham win 45.9% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Watford21.9%
Draw23.3%
West Ham54.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
Both teams to scoreYes62.5%
No37.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.2%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)78.1%
Handicap -1West Ham win45.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss33.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.4%
0-28.4%
1-18.2%

Watford vs West Ham stats

Watford and West Ham recent form

newest first
Watford LDWWLL
West Ham WLDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Watford and West Ham going into this match

league record before kick-off

Watford record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

West Ham record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Watford vs West Ham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Watford wins 1Draws 6West Ham wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-02-08West HamWatfordPremier League1-0
2021-12-28WatfordWest HamPremier League1-4
2020-07-17West HamWatfordPremier League3-1
2019-08-24WatfordWest HamPremier League1-3
2019-05-12WatfordWest HamPremier League1-4
2018-12-22West HamWatfordPremier League0-2
2018-02-10West HamWatfordPremier League2-0
2017-11-19WatfordWest HamPremier League2-0
2017-02-25WatfordWest HamPremier League1-1
2016-09-10West HamWatfordPremier League2-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Watford vs West Ham odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.5%, draw 24.7%, away 50.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.80 3.80 1.84
1xBet 3.82 3.76 1.85
Bet365 3.90 3.80 1.83
BetVictor 3.75 3.75 1.80
Betano 3.95 3.85 1.87
Betfair 3.75 3.90 1.87
Dafabet 3.90 3.85 1.91
Marathonbet 3.84 3.76 1.83
Pinnacle 3.94 3.88 1.85
SBO 3.35 3.34 1.82
Superbet 3.85 3.80 1.90
Unibet 3.85 3.70 1.85
William Hill 3.80 3.60 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.84 ▲ +0.24
X 3.80 ▲ +0.05
2 1.85 ▼ -0.05

11 snapshots recorded, from .