Derby
vs
Swansea
0 – 3 Full time
Derby vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Swansea
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.8% | 28.0% | 34.3% |
| Market | 40.8% | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| Final | 40.1% | 28.7% | 31.3% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -0.9% | +4.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Derby and Swansea attack and defence ratings
Derby
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derby vs Swansea: result vs prediction
Derby 0 – 3 Swansea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 40.1% | 2.50 | -3.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 40.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Swansea | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derby win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Derby vs Swansea stats
Derby and Swansea recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Swansea going into this match
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Derby | Swansea | England Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Swansea | Derby | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Swansea | Derby | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-27 | Derby | Swansea | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-09 | Swansea | Derby | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-02 | Derby | Swansea | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-01 | Swansea | Derby | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2020-12-16 | Derby | Swansea | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2020-02-08 | Swansea | Derby | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2019-08-10 | Derby | Swansea | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Swansea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 28.9%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.28 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.28 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.36 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 2.98 | 2.90 |
| Superbet | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Unibet | 2.32 | 3.15 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .