Garuda Lions
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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 3

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd

2 – 2 Full time

Cardiff City Stadium, CardiffReferee: J. Busby

Cardiff 38%
Draw 27%
Sheffield Utd 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCardiffDrawSheffield Utd
Model43.5%25.5%31.0%
Market36.3%27.1%36.6%
Final38.1%26.7%35.2%
Edge+7.2%-1.7%-5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Cardiff

  • The market prices Cardiff below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cardiff ↓ / Sheffield Utd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Cardiff and Sheffield Utd expected goals

Cardiff 1.72
Sheffield Utd 1.43

Total expected goals: 3.15

Cardiff and Sheffield Utd attack and defence ratings

Cardiff

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Sheffield Utd

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd: result vs prediction

Cardiff 2 – 2 Sheffield Utd

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cardiff 38.1% 2.63 +7.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.6% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.5% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cardiff38.1%
Draw26.7%
Sheffield Utd35.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes63.6%
No36.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.8%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)61.9%
Handicap -1Cardiff win23.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss56.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.1%
1-27.5%

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd stats

Cardiff and Sheffield Utd recent form

newest first
Cardiff LDDWLW
Sheffield Utd WDDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cardiff and Sheffield Utd going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cardiff record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sheffield Utd record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Cardiff wins 1Draws 6Sheffield Utd wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-18Sheffield UtdCardiffChampionship2-0
2025-01-09Sheffield UtdCardiffEngland FA Cup0-1
2024-12-21CardiffSheffield UtdChampionship0-2
2023-04-15Sheffield UtdCardiffChampionship4-1
2022-11-12CardiffSheffield UtdChampionship0-1
2022-04-23Sheffield UtdCardiffChampionship1-0
2021-12-04CardiffSheffield UtdChampionship2-3
2018-04-02Sheffield UtdCardiffChampionship1-1
2017-08-15CardiffSheffield UtdChampionship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 27.1%, away 36.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.56 3.45 2.56
1xBet 2.58 3.42 2.55
Bet365 2.60 3.50 2.55
BetVictor 2.50 3.40 2.50
Betano 2.65 3.45 2.60
Betfair 2.50 3.70 2.63
Dafabet 2.65 3.60 2.60
Marathonbet 2.58 3.42 2.55
Pinnacle 2.62 3.58 2.57
SBO 2.43 3.12 2.38
Superbet 2.65 3.50 2.57
Unibet 2.55 3.45 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.58 ▲ +0.07
X 3.45 ▲ +0.05
2 2.56 ▼ -0.06

11 snapshots recorded, from .