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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 3

Middlesbrough vs West Brom

3 – 1 Full time

Riverside Stadium, MiddlesbroughReferee: P. Tierney

Middlesbrough 49%
Draw 26%
West Brom 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Middlesbrough vs West Brom overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs West Brom

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMiddlesbroughDrawWest Brom
Model32.4%28.1%39.5%
Market54.5%24.8%20.7%
Final49.0%25.6%25.4%
Edge-22.1%+3.3%+18.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Middlesbrough ↓ / West Brom → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Middlesbrough and West Brom expected goals

Middlesbrough 1.28
West Brom 1.43

Total expected goals: 2.71

Middlesbrough and West Brom attack and defence ratings

Middlesbrough

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.90 -10%

West Brom

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Middlesbrough vs West Brom: result vs prediction

Middlesbrough 3 – 1 West Brom

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Middlesbrough vs West Brom markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Middlesbrough 49.0% 2.04 -22.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.9% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.2% 1.78 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.7% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Middlesbrough49.0%
Draw25.6%
West Brom25.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Both teams to scoreYes56.2%
No43.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.6%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)51.0%
Handicap -1Middlesbrough win14.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.8%
Loss67.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-28.7%
0-18.3%

Middlesbrough vs West Brom stats

Middlesbrough and West Brom recent form

newest first
Middlesbrough WLWWLL
West Brom LWWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Middlesbrough and West Brom going into this match

league record before kick-off

Middlesbrough record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

West Brom record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Middlesbrough vs West Brom head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Middlesbrough wins 2Draws 2West Brom wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-16West BromMiddlesbroughEngland Championship2-3
2025-09-19MiddlesbroughWest BromEngland Championship2-1
2025-01-21MiddlesbroughWest BromChampionship2-0
2024-10-01West BromMiddlesbroughChampionship0-1
2023-12-23MiddlesbroughWest BromChampionship1-0
2023-08-26West BromMiddlesbroughChampionship4-2
2023-02-25West BromMiddlesbroughChampionship2-0
2022-07-30MiddlesbroughWest BromChampionship1-1
2022-02-22MiddlesbroughWest BromChampionship2-1
2021-11-06West BromMiddlesbroughChampionship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Middlesbrough vs West Brom odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 24.8%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.74 3.75 4.40
1xBet 1.70 3.80 4.65
Bet365 1.75 3.80 4.50
BetVictor 1.70 3.80 4.80
Betano 1.72 3.85 4.70
Betfair 1.75 3.80 4.50
Dafabet 1.76 3.85 4.70
Marathonbet 1.68 3.80 4.70
Pinnacle 1.71 3.96 4.63
SBO 1.71 3.25 3.93
Superbet 1.75 3.80 4.55
Unibet 1.73 3.75 4.40
William Hill 1.73 3.70 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▲ +0.01
X 3.80 ▲ +0.22
2 4.55 ▼ -0.21

11 snapshots recorded, from .