England Championship · 2026-09-02T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 4

Burnley vs Middlesbrough

1 – 1 Full time

23′			A. Morris
28′			Hannibal Mejbri
39′			Will Lankshear
46′			H. MejbriM. Alleyne
46′			A. HountondjiL. Ramazani
54′			U. Raghouber
61′			K. JosephL. Castledine
61′			R. McGreeT. Conway
71′			Alfie Jones
71′			Z. AmdouniA. Ramsey
74′			A. JonesA. Phillips
77′			J. Bruun LarsenA. Broja
81′			D. SatpaevM. Tresor Ndayishimiye
87′			W. LankshearD. Strelec
90′			Ugo Raghouber

Turf Moor, BurnleyReferee: M. Donohue

Burnley

29%

Draw

26%

Middlesbrough

45%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
43	Possession %	57
5	Corners	1
11	Fouls	8
2	Offsides	6
1	Saves	2
301	Accurate passes	466

Burnley vs Middlesbrough overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Middlesbrough

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Burnley	Draw	Middlesbrough
Model	14.9%	22.3%	62.9%
Market	33.7%	27.0%	39.3%
Final	29.0%	25.8%	45.2%
Edge	-18.8%	-4.7%	+23.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Middlesbrough

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.91.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Middlesbrough below the model: +23.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

57%

No goals

Burnley and Middlesbrough expected goals

Burnley

0.91

Middlesbrough

2.06

Total expected goals: 2.98

Burnley and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings

Burnley

Attack

0.72 -28%

Defence

1.38 +38%

Middlesbrough

Attack

1.24 +24%

Defence

0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough: result vs prediction

Burnley 1 – 1 Middlesbrough

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

England Championship

West Ham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers · 2026-09-01
Preston vs Bristol City — team news & stats · 2026-09-01
Sheffield Utd vs Bolton · 2026-09-01
Swansea v Watford — match page · 2026-09-01
Portsmouth vs Derby — team news & stats · 2026-09-01
Lincoln vs Blackburn · 2026-09-01
Birmingham v Southampton — match page · 2026-09-01
Stoke City v Norwich — match page · 2026-09-01

Before and after this match

Burnley, previous: Norwich vs Burnley: odds and pick
Burnley, next: Burnley vs Bristol City prediction
Middlesbrough, previous: Middlesbrough vs West Brom prediction
Middlesbrough, next: QPR – Middlesbrough, 2026-09-05

Burnley vs Middlesbrough markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Middlesbrough	45.2%	2.21	+23.6%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.1%	1.75	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	53.3%	1.88	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.2%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Middlesbrough win	39.9%	2.51	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Burnley	29.0%
	Draw	25.8%
	Middlesbrough	45.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.1%
	Under 2.5	42.9%
Both teams to score	Yes	53.3%
	No	46.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	54.8%
	12 (either side)	74.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	71.0%
Handicap -1	Middlesbrough win	39.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.1%
	Loss	37.0%
Correct score (top 3)	0-2	10.8%
	1-1	10.6%
	1-2	9.9%

Burnley vs Middlesbrough stats

Burnley and Middlesbrough recent form

newest first

Burnley	LDLDDD
Middlesbrough	WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Burnley and Middlesbrough going into this match

league record before kick-off

Burnley record

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Middlesbrough record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Burnley wins 4Draws 2Middlesbrough wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2024-12-29	Middlesbrough	Burnley	Championship	0-0
2024-12-06	Burnley	Middlesbrough	Championship	1-1
2023-04-07	Middlesbrough	Burnley	Championship	1-2
2022-12-17	Burnley	Middlesbrough	Championship	3-1
2017-04-08	Middlesbrough	Burnley	Premier League	0-0
2016-12-26	Burnley	Middlesbrough	Premier League	1-0
2016-04-19	Burnley	Middlesbrough	Championship	1-1
2016-01-09	Middlesbrough	Burnley	FA Cup	1-2
2015-12-15	Middlesbrough	Burnley	Championship	1-0
2014-04-12	Burnley	Middlesbrough	Championship	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.7%, draw 27.0%, away 39.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.70	3.70	2.34
1xBet	2.81	3.50	2.35
Bet365	2.70	3.50	2.40
BetVictor	2.80	3.60	2.38
Betano	2.80	3.65	2.37
Betfair	2.80	3.50	2.40
Dafabet	2.85	3.60	2.43
Marathonbet	2.79	3.50	2.34
Pinnacle	2.92	3.63	2.41
SBO	2.64	3.24	2.36
Superbet	2.82	3.55	2.42
Unibet	2.65	3.45	2.48
William Hill	2.70	3.40	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.30

X 3.50 ▲ +0.10

2 2.40 ▼ -0.26

7 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30T20:10:18Z.