Norwich
vs
Burnley
4 – 1 Full time
Norwich vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Norwich vs Burnley
| Probability | Norwich | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.2% | 23.1% | 16.8% |
| Market | 40.6% | 26.9% | 32.5% |
| Final | 45.5% | 25.9% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +19.6% | -3.9% | -15.7% |
Why Norwich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Norwich below the model: +19.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Norwich and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Norwich and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Norwich
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Norwich vs Burnley: result vs prediction
Norwich 4 – 1 Burnley
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Norwich vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 45.5% | 2.20 | +19.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 45.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Burnley | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 10.0% |
Norwich vs Burnley stats
Norwich and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Norwich and Burnley going into this match
Norwich record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | Burnley | Norwich | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Norwich | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-04 | Norwich | Burnley | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2022-10-25 | Burnley | Norwich | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-10 | Norwich | Burnley | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-02 | Burnley | Norwich | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2020-07-18 | Norwich | Burnley | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2020-01-25 | Burnley | Norwich | FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2019-09-21 | Burnley | Norwich | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Norwich vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 26.9%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.26 | 3.50 | 2.92 |
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.58 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 3.10 | 2.66 |
| Superbet | 2.37 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Unibet | 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .