Garuda Lions
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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 4

Stoke City vs Norwich

1 – 0 Full time

13′E. Galbraith
46′B. WilmotL. Bombino
46′M. ManhoefS. Gallagher
46′A. SlimaneA. Musaba
47′Bosun Lawal
49′Ethan Galbraith
56′D. YongwaB. Chrisene
59′G. HirstR. Bozenik
61′José Córdoba
66′Kenny McLean
71′M. ToureM. Kvistgaarden
71′A. BrooksP. A. Diallo
85′P. MattssonJ. Wright
87′D. SoumareB. Pearson

Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on TrentReferee: A. Kitchen

Stoke City 26%
Draw 25%
Norwich 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 6
29 Possession % 71
3 Corners 5
16 Fouls 10
6 Offsides 4
5 Saves 1
128 Accurate passes 455

Stoke City vs Norwich overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Norwich

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStoke CityDrawNorwich
Model19.5%21.0%59.6%
Market27.7%26.5%45.7%
Final25.7%25.2%49.2%
Edge-8.3%-5.6%+13.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Norwich

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Norwich below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stoke City ↓ / Norwich → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 6% 6% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Stoke City and Norwich expected goals

Stoke City 1.28
Norwich 2.31

Total expected goals: 3.59

Stoke City and Norwich attack and defence ratings

Stoke City

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Norwich

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stoke City vs Norwich: result vs prediction

Stoke City 1 – 0 Norwich

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Stoke City vs Norwich markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Norwich 49.2% 2.03 +13.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.7% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.0% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.4% 2.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stoke City25.7%
Draw25.2%
Norwich49.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%
Both teams to scoreYes66.0%
No34.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.8%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)74.3%
Handicap -1Norwich win38.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss40.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.4%
1-19.0%
0-27.3%

Stoke City vs Norwich stats

Stoke City and Norwich recent form

newest first
Stoke City LDLLWL
Norwich WWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stoke City and Norwich going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stoke City record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Norwich record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Stoke City vs Norwich head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Stoke City wins 3Draws 6Norwich wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-04NorwichStoke CityEngland Championship0-2
2025-09-27Stoke CityNorwichEngland Championship1-1
2025-02-22NorwichStoke CityChampionship4-2
2024-10-19Stoke CityNorwichChampionship1-1
2024-03-16Stoke CityNorwichChampionship0-3
2023-09-16NorwichStoke CityChampionship1-0
2023-03-18Stoke CityNorwichChampionship0-0
2022-10-29NorwichStoke CityChampionship3-1
2021-02-13NorwichStoke CityChampionship4-1
2020-11-24Stoke CityNorwichChampionship2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stoke City vs Norwich odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.7%, draw 26.5%, away 45.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.30 3.55 2.06
1xBet 3.40 3.54 2.04
Bet365 3.50 3.60 2.00
BetVictor 3.40 3.60 2.05
Betano 3.50 3.55 2.07
Betfair 3.40 3.60 2.05
Dafabet 3.20 3.55 2.25
Marathonbet 3.30 3.52 2.06
Pinnacle 3.41 3.72 2.12
SBO 3.15 3.23 2.08
Superbet 3.45 3.55 2.10
Unibet 3.25 3.50 2.07
William Hill 3.30 3.50 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.40 ▲ +0.42
X 3.55 ▲ +0.11
2 2.06 ▼ -0.23

5 snapshots recorded, from .