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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 3

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City

4 – 1 Full time

Molineux Stadium, WolverhamptonReferee: T. Nield

Wolverhampton Wanderers 62%
Draw 22%
Stoke City 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWolverhampton WanderersDrawStoke City
Model59.7%22.7%17.6%
Market62.7%21.9%15.4%
Final62.0%22.1%16.0%
Edge-3.0%+0.8%+2.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.05.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Wolverhampton ↓ / Stoke City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 11% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Stoke City expected goals

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2.06
Stoke City 1.05

Total expected goals: 3.11

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Stoke City attack and defence ratings

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Stoke City

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City: result vs prediction

Wolverhampton Wanderers 4 – 1 Stoke City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Wolverhampton Wanderers 62.0% 1.61 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.1% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.7% 1.73 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.0% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.3% 2.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Wolverhampton Wanderers62.0%
Draw22.1%
Stoke City16.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%
Both teams to scoreYes57.7%
No42.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.0%
12 (either side)77.9%
X2 (draw or away)38.0%
Handicap -1Wolverhampton Wanderers win37.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss40.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-19.9%
2-09.5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City stats

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Stoke City recent form

newest first
Wolverhampton Wanderers WWDWDD
Stoke City DLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Stoke City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stoke City record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Wolverhampton Wanderers wins 2Draws 4Stoke City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-26Stoke CityWolverhampton WanderersFriendlies Clubs1-1
2021-07-31Stoke CityWolverhampton WanderersFriendlies Clubs1-1
2020-09-17Wolverhampton WanderersStoke CityLeague Cup0-1
2017-01-07Stoke CityWolverhampton WanderersFA Cup0-2
2012-04-07Stoke CityWolverhampton WanderersPremier League2-1
2011-12-17Wolverhampton WanderersStoke CityPremier League1-2
2011-04-26Stoke CityWolverhampton WanderersPremier League3-0
2010-08-14Wolverhampton WanderersStoke CityPremier League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Stoke City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.7%, draw 21.9%, away 15.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.50 4.20 6.00
1xBet 1.49 4.30 6.11
Bet365 1.48 4.33 6.50
BetVictor 1.50 4.20 6.50
Betano 1.52 4.30 6.30
Betfair 1.47 4.40 6.00
Dafabet 1.52 4.50 6.20
Marathonbet 1.48 4.30 6.10
Pinnacle 1.50 4.42 6.20
SBO 1.43 3.83 5.32
Superbet 1.51 4.50 5.90
Unibet 1.47 4.40 6.10
William Hill 1.50 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.06
X 4.30 ▼ -0.20
2 6.10 ▼ -0.35

11 snapshots recorded, from .