Wrexham
vs
Birmingham
1 – 2 Full time
Wrexham vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Birmingham
| Probability | Wrexham | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 28.3% | 31.7% |
| Market | 39.3% | 28.6% | 32.1% |
| Final | 39.5% | 28.5% | 32.0% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wrexham and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Wrexham and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
Wrexham
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wrexham vs Birmingham: result vs prediction
Wrexham 1 – 2 Birmingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wrexham vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 39.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Birmingham | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wrexham win | 19.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Wrexham vs Birmingham stats
Wrexham and Birmingham recent form
| Wrexham |
DDLDLW |
| Birmingham |
LDDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wrexham and Birmingham going into this match
Wrexham record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Birmingham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Wrexham vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Birmingham | Wrexham | England Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Wrexham | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-23 | Wrexham | Birmingham | League One | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-16 | Birmingham | Wrexham | League One | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wrexham vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 28.6%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.20 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.31 | 2.99 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 3.01 | 2.70 |
| Superbet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.43 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .