Birmingham
vs
Brentford
1 – 6 Full time
Birmingham vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Brentford
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.5% | 27.9% | 36.6% |
| Market | 21.7% | 24.8% | 53.5% |
| Final | 25.2% | 25.6% | 49.3% |
| Edge | +13.8% | +3.1% | -16.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Brentford expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Birmingham and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Brentford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs Brentford: result vs prediction
Birmingham 1 – 6 Brentford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 49.3% | 2.03 | -16.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 25.2% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Brentford | 49.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Birmingham vs Brentford stats
Birmingham and Brentford recent form
| Birmingham |
DDWDWW |
| Brentford |
WDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-06 | Brentford | Birmingham | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2020-09-12 | Birmingham | Brentford | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2020-02-15 | Birmingham | Brentford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-03 | Brentford | Birmingham | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2018-12-29 | Birmingham | Brentford | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2018-10-02 | Brentford | Birmingham | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2018-02-20 | Brentford | Birmingham | Championship | 5-0 |
| 2017-11-01 | Birmingham | Brentford | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2017-01-02 | Birmingham | Brentford | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2016-11-26 | Brentford | Birmingham | Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.7%, draw 24.8%, away 53.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.77 |
| 1xBet | 4.38 | 3.88 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 3.90 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.81 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.84 | 1.81 |
| Pinnacle | 4.38 | 3.95 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 4.00 | 3.55 | 1.74 |
| Superbet | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.78 |
| Unibet | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .