Birmingham
vs
Bristol City
2 – 2 Full time
Birmingham vs Bristol City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Bristol City
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 32.3% | 23.4% |
| Market | 53.1% | 25.7% | 21.2% |
| Final | 50.9% | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Edge | -8.8% | +6.6% | +2.3% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Bristol City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Birmingham and Bristol City attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Bristol City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs Bristol City: result vs prediction
Birmingham 2 – 2 Bristol City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Bristol City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 50.9% | 1.97 | -8.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 50.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Bristol City | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Birmingham vs Bristol City stats
Birmingham and Bristol City recent form
| Birmingham |
DWDWWD |
| Bristol City |
LLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Bristol City going into this match
Birmingham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Bristol City record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Birmingham vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Birmingham | Bristol City | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Bristol City | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Bristol City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 25.7%, away 21.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.84 | 3.55 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.66 | 4.42 |
| 888Sport | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.66 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.85 | 4.53 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.30 | 3.82 |
| Superbet | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Unibet | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.35 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |