Millwall
vs
Norwich
3 – 0 Full time
Millwall vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Norwich
| Probability | Millwall | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 29.9% | 25.8% |
| Market | 38.8% | 28.3% | 32.9% |
| Final | 40.2% | 28.7% | 31.1% |
| Edge | +5.5% | +1.5% | -7.0% |
Why Millwall
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.99.
- The market prices Millwall below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millwall and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Millwall and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Millwall
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Millwall vs Norwich: result vs prediction
Millwall 3 – 0 Norwich
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Millwall vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 40.2% | 2.49 | +5.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 40.2% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Norwich | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
Millwall vs Norwich stats
Millwall and Norwich recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millwall and Norwich going into this match
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Norwich record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Millwall vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Millwall | Norwich | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Norwich | Millwall | England Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millwall vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 28.3%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.32 | 2.79 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.32 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.48 | 2.85 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.04 | 2.90 |
| Superbet | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.87 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.90 |