Leeds
vs
Brentford
1 – 1 Full time
Leeds vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leeds vs Brentford
| Probability | Leeds | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 23.5% | 30.1% |
| Market | 37.4% | 28.0% | 34.6% |
| Final | 39.6% | 26.9% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +9.0% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
Why Leeds
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leeds below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leeds and Brentford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Leeds and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Leeds
Brentford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leeds vs Brentford: result vs prediction
Leeds 1 – 1 Brentford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leeds vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 39.6% | 2.52 | +9.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 39.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Brentford | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leeds win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Leeds vs Brentford stats
Leeds vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Leeds | Brentford | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Brentford | Leeds | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leeds vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 28.0%, away 34.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.54 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.48 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.47 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 2.93 | 2.52 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| onexbet | 2.62 | 3.56 | 2.83 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .