Garuda Lions
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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Brighton vs Leeds

1 – 1 Full time

6′Jayden Bogle
15′J. Bogle
38′Pascal Groß
49′Maxim De Cuyper
61′J. BogleJ. Bijol
62′N. OkaforB. Aaronson
64′Dominic Calvert-Lewin
71′L. Vuskovic
73′A. TanakaH. Wilson
74′D. Calvert-LewinL. Nmecha
77′M. De CuyperP. David
78′F. KadiogluCostinha
85′Harry Wilson
88′Promise David
90′O. BoscagliP. Struijk

American Express Stadium, FalmerReferee: Stuart Attwell, England

Brighton 49%
Draw 26%
Leeds 25%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 5
67 Possession % 33
7 Corners 6
13 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 2
3 Saves 4
437 Accurate passes 171

Brighton vs Leeds overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Leeds

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBrightonDrawLeeds
Model54.2%24.6%21.2%
Market46.9%26.7%26.4%
Final48.7%26.2%25.1%
Edge+7.3%-2.1%-5.2%

Confidence: High

Why Brighton

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.20.
  • The market prices Brighton below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Brighton ↓ / Leeds → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 6%

Brighton and Leeds expected goals

Brighton 1.89
Leeds 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.09

Brighton and Leeds attack and defence ratings

Brighton

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Leeds

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Brighton vs Leeds: result vs prediction

Brighton 1 – 1 Leeds

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Brighton vs Leeds markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Brighton 48.7% 2.05 +7.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.7% 1.62 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.9% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.8% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Brighton48.7%
Draw26.2%
Leeds25.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.7%
No38.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.9%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)51.3%
Handicap -1Brighton win32.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss45.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%

Brighton vs Leeds stats

Brighton and Leeds recent form

newest first
Brighton LWWDLL
Leeds DWWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Brighton vs Leeds head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Brighton wins 3Draws 2Leeds wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17LeedsBrightonPremier League1-0
2025-11-01BrightonLeedsPremier League3-0
2023-03-11LeedsBrightonPremier League2-2
2022-08-27BrightonLeedsPremier League1-0
2022-05-15LeedsBrightonPremier League1-1
2021-11-27BrightonLeedsPremier League0-0
2021-05-01BrightonLeedsPremier League2-0
2021-01-16LeedsBrightonPremier League0-1
2017-03-18LeedsBrightonChampionship2-0
2016-12-09BrightonLeedsChampionship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Brighton vs Leeds odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 27.1%, away 25.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.45 3.90
1xBet 2.08 3.66 3.81
Bet365 2.05 3.50 3.60
BetVictor 2.05 3.60 3.50
Betano 2.00 3.50 3.80
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.90
Dafabet 2.01 3.55 3.80
Marathonbet 2.05 3.62 3.74
Pinnacle 2.06 3.61 3.68
SBO 1.87 3.23 3.52
Superbet 2.00 3.55 3.85
Unibet 2.00 3.40 3.90
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.50
codere_it 1.74 3.70 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▲ +0.31
X 3.60 ▼ -0.10
2 3.64 ▼ -1.16

23 snapshots recorded, from .