Garuda Lions
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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

1 – 4 Full time

Selhurst Park, LondonReferee: Andy Madley, England

Crystal Palace 22%
Draw 24%
Manchester City 54%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCrystal PalaceDrawManchester City
Model32.7%24.9%42.4%
Market19.1%23.1%57.8%
Final22.5%23.6%54.0%
Edge+13.6%+1.8%-15.4%

Confidence: High

Why Manchester City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Crystal Palace ↓ / Manchester Cit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 9% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Crystal Palace and Manchester City expected goals

Crystal Palace 1.55
Manchester City 1.87

Total expected goals: 3.42

Crystal Palace and Manchester City attack and defence ratings

Crystal Palace

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Manchester City

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: result vs prediction

Crystal Palace 1 – 4 Manchester City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester City 54.0% 1.85 -15.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.6% 1.74 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Crystal Palace22.5%
Draw23.6%
Manchester City54.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.0%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)77.5%
Handicap -1Manchester City win23.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss57.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
1-28.6%
2-17.5%

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City stats

Crystal Palace and Manchester City recent form

newest first
Crystal Palace LWLDLD
Manchester City WLDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Crystal Palace wins 3Draws 6Manchester City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13Manchester CityCrystal PalacePremier League3-0
2025-12-14Crystal PalaceManchester CityPremier League0-3
2025-05-17Crystal PalaceManchester CityEngland FA Cup1-0
2025-04-12Manchester CityCrystal PalacePremier League5-2
2024-12-07Crystal PalaceManchester CityPremier League2-2
2024-04-06Crystal PalaceManchester CityPremier League2-4
2023-12-16Manchester CityCrystal PalacePremier League2-2
2023-03-11Crystal PalaceManchester CityPremier League0-1
2022-08-27Manchester CityCrystal PalacePremier League4-2
2022-03-14Crystal PalaceManchester CityPremier League0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 23.2%, away 57.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.23 4.32 1.69
Bet365 5.25 4.00 1.65
BetVictor 5.00 4.10 1.65
Betano 5.10 4.05 1.65
Betfair 5.00 4.20 1.65
Dafabet 5.00 4.20 1.66
Marathonbet 5.05 4.20 1.68
Pinnacle 4.98 4.24 1.67
SBO 4.51 3.74 1.57
Superbet 4.90 4.15 1.67
Unibet 5.50 4.00 1.61
William Hill 4.80 4.00 1.62
winamax_fr 4.60 3.90 1.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.00 ▲ +0.60
X 4.12 ▲ +0.33
2 1.65 ▲ +0.15

13 snapshots recorded, from .