Manchester City
vs
Bournemouth
2 – 1 Full time
Manchester City vs Bournemouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs Bournemouth
| Probability | Manchester City | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.6% | 21.2% | 19.2% |
| Market | 65.4% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| Final | 63.9% | 20.1% | 16.0% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +1.5% | +4.3% |
Why Manchester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.34.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester City and Bournemouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Manchester City and Bournemouth attack and defence ratings
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth: result vs prediction
Manchester City 2 – 1 Bournemouth
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Manchester City vs Bournemouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 63.9% | 1.56 | -5.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 63.9% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Bournemouth | 16.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 39.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
Manchester City vs Bournemouth stats
Manchester City and Bournemouth recent form
| Manchester City |
LDWWWD |
| Bournemouth |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Bournemouth | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Manchester City | Bournemouth | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-20 | Manchester City | Bournemouth | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Bournemouth | Manchester City | England FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Bournemouth | Manchester City | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Bournemouth | Manchester City | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Manchester City | Bournemouth | Premier League | 6-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 19.5%, away 15.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.45 | 4.65 | 6.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 5.08 | 6.15 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 5.00 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.99 | 5.91 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.29 | 5.22 |
| Superbet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 5.90 |
| Unibet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.91 | 6.48 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .