Brighton
vs
Aston Villa
4 – 0 Full time
Brighton vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Brighton | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.6% | 28.3% | 43.0% |
| Market | 44.2% | 26.9% | 28.9% |
| Final | 40.3% | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| Edge | -15.6% | +1.5% | +14.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brighton and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Brighton and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Brighton
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Brighton vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Brighton 4 – 0 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brighton vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 40.3% | 2.48 | -15.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 40.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Aston Villa | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 12.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 71.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-0 | 7.7% |
Brighton vs Aston Villa stats
Brighton and Aston Villa recent form
| Brighton |
DLLWLW |
| Aston Villa |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brighton vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Aston Villa | Brighton | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Brighton | Aston Villa | Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2025-04-02 | Brighton | Aston Villa | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-12-30 | Aston Villa | Brighton | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Brighton | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-30 | Aston Villa | Brighton | Premier League | 6-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brighton vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 26.7%, away 29.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.18 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.62 | 3.31 |
| 888Sport | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.56 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.58 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.12 | 2.82 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.55 | 3.20 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.62 | 3.37 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .