Doncaster
vs
Middlesbrough
1 – 3 Full time
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Doncaster vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Doncaster | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 33.1% | 37.7% |
| Market | 17.5% | 22.3% | 60.2% |
| Final | 20.4% | 25.0% | 54.6% |
| Edge | +11.7% | +10.8% | -22.5% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Doncaster and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Doncaster and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Doncaster
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough: result vs prediction
Doncaster 1 – 3 Middlesbrough
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 54.6% | 1.83 | -22.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 20.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Middlesbrough | 54.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.9% |
| No | 58.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 62.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 0-1 | 13.0% |
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough stats
Doncaster and Middlesbrough recent form
| Doncaster |
DLDWDL |
| Middlesbrough |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-12 | Middlesbrough | Doncaster | League Cup | 0-4 |
| 2024-07-27 | Doncaster | Middlesbrough | Friendlies Clubs | 3-5 |
| 2014-02-01 | Doncaster | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2013-10-25 | Middlesbrough | Doncaster | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2012-04-17 | Middlesbrough | Doncaster | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2011-11-01 | Doncaster | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.5%, draw 22.3%, away 60.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.56 |
| 1xBet | 5.35 | 4.45 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 5.50 | 4.45 | 1.58 |
| Pinnacle | 5.59 | 4.35 | 1.57 |
| SBO | 4.82 | 3.78 | 1.48 |
| Superbet | 5.10 | 4.15 | 1.58 |
| Unibet | 5.40 | 4.25 | 1.54 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .