Wrexham
vs
Watford
1 – 1 Full time
Wrexham vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Watford
| Probability | Wrexham | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 25.3% | 21.2% |
| Market | 49.2% | 26.6% | 24.2% |
| Final | 50.2% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -1.2% | -3.0% |
Why Wrexham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Wrexham below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wrexham and Watford expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Wrexham and Watford attack and defence ratings
Wrexham
Watford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wrexham vs Watford: result vs prediction
Wrexham 1 – 1 Watford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wrexham vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 50.2% | 1.99 | +4.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 50.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Watford | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wrexham win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Wrexham vs Watford stats
Wrexham and Watford recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wrexham and Watford going into this match
Wrexham record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Watford record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Wrexham vs Watford head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Watford | Wrexham | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Wrexham | Watford | England Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wrexham vs Watford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 26.6%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.52 | 3.77 |
| 888Sport | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.52 | 3.78 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.74 | 3.94 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.16 | 3.46 |
| Superbet | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.89 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |