Portsmouth
vs
Derby
0 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | S. Szmodics | ||
| 51′ | Sondre Langås | ||
| 59′ | R. BrewsterL. Salvesen | ||
| 62′ | L. Salvesen | ||
| 65′ | R. Kavuma McQueenL. Brooke-Smith | ||
| 66′ | MareziC. Bishop | ||
| 69′ | Terry Devlin | ||
| 72′ | E. AdamsR. R. Shein | ||
| 72′ | M. PackI. Mohamed | ||
| 80′ | C. ForsythR. Nyambe | ||
| 81′ | B. ClarkJ. Ward | ||
| 83′ | Charlie Taylor | ||
| 85′ | Z. SwansonO. Bailey | ||
| 86′ | R. HedgesM. Johnston | ||
| 86′ | S. SzmodicsF. Bilbija |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 424 | Accurate passes | 184 |
Portsmouth vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portsmouth vs Derby
| Probability | Portsmouth | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.5% | 24.1% | 30.4% |
| Market | 48.4% | 27.4% | 24.2% |
| Final | 47.7% | 26.6% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -3.2% | +6.1% |
Why Portsmouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portsmouth and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Portsmouth and Derby attack and defence ratings
Portsmouth
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Portsmouth vs Derby: result vs prediction
Portsmouth 0 – 2 Derby
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portsmouth vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 47.7% | 2.10 | -2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 47.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Derby | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% |
| No | 32.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Portsmouth vs Derby stats
Portsmouth and Derby recent form
| Portsmouth |
LWLLDW |
| Derby |
LDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portsmouth and Derby going into this match
Portsmouth record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portsmouth vs Derby head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Portsmouth | Derby | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Derby | Portsmouth | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Portsmouth | Derby | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-13 | Derby | Portsmouth | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-02 | Portsmouth | Derby | League One | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Derby | Portsmouth | League One | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-29 | Derby | Portsmouth | League One | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-18 | Portsmouth | Derby | League One | 0-0 |
| 2015-08-12 | Portsmouth | Derby | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2012-04-21 | Portsmouth | Derby | Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portsmouth vs Derby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 27.4%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.87 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.45 | 3.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.45 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.54 | 3.91 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.57 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.93 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .