West Ham
vs
Derby
3 – 0 Full time
| 6′ | J. Piroe | ||
| 21′ | Alex Mowatt | ||
| 22′ | R. BrewsterD. Ozoh | ||
| 62′ | O. FrauloB. Clark | ||
| 62′ | H. MeisterL. Salvesen | ||
| 64′ | T. CastellanosL. Orford | ||
| 71′ | R. NyambeM. Johnston | ||
| 71′ | R. HedgesM. Fuseini | ||
| 77′ | Mohammed Fuseini | ||
| 77′ | O. ScarlesA. Boiro | ||
| 77′ | M. SolomonE. Austbo | ||
| 86′ | A. MowattC. Blackett-Taylor | ||
| 87′ | E. Austbo | ||
| 90′ | D. MukasaMorato | ||
| 90′ | J. BowenM. Kante | ||
| 90′ | M. Kante |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 388 | Accurate passes | 340 |
West Ham vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Ham vs Derby
| Probability | West Ham | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.6% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| Market | 67.8% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| Final | 65.5% | 20.0% | 14.5% |
| Edge | -9.1% | +1.7% | +7.5% |
Why West Ham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Ham and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
West Ham and Derby attack and defence ratings
West Ham
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
West Ham vs Derby: result vs prediction
West Ham 3 – 0 Derby
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Ham vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 65.5% | 1.53 | -9.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 65.5% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Derby | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
West Ham vs Derby stats
West Ham and Derby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Ham and Derby going into this match
West Ham record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Ham vs Derby head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-30 | Derby | West Ham | FA Cup | 0-2 |
| 2011-12-31 | Derby | West Ham | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2011-11-26 | West Ham | Derby | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
West Ham vs Derby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.3%, draw 19.6%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.35 | 4.60 | 8.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.80 | 7.47 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 4.90 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 5.10 | 7.48 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.29 | 6.76 |
| Unibet | 1.32 | 5.10 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .