Garuda Lions
Today
England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 5

Burnley vs Bristol City

1 – 2 Full time

45′Hjalmar Ekdal
46′H. EkdalA. Ahmedhodzic
46′A. HountondjiA. Broja
56′A. Ramsey
61′J. WallaceY. Hirakawa
62′G. YahD. Ballard
63′R. HatateZ. Amdouni
70′L. RamazaniJ. Bruun Larsen
72′C. PringG. Tanner
72′S. TwineS. Greenwood
80′L. TolajE. Adebayo
82′R. Dickie
83′Kyle Walker
85′A. RamseyH. Mejbri
90′Armando Broja
90′Y. Hirakawa

Turf Moor, BurnleyReferee: G. Ward

Burnley 42%
Draw 26%
Bristol City 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 4
53 Possession % 47
5 Corners 8
13 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 1
392 Accurate passes 332

Burnley vs Bristol City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Bristol City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBurnleyDrawBristol City
Model23.1%26.6%50.3%
Market48.1%26.4%25.4%
Final41.9%26.5%31.6%
Edge-25.0%+0.1%+24.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Burnley ↓ / Bristol City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 9% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Burnley and Bristol City expected goals

Burnley 1.07
Bristol City 1.67

Total expected goals: 2.74

Burnley and Bristol City attack and defence ratings

Burnley

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Bristol City

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Burnley vs Bristol City: result vs prediction

Burnley 1 – 2 Bristol City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Burnley vs Bristol City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Burnley 41.9% 2.39 -25.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.7% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.7% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Burnley41.9%
Draw26.5%
Bristol City31.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
Both teams to scoreYes54.6%
No45.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.4%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)58.1%
Handicap -1Burnley win9.2%
Push (exactly one goal)14.1%
Loss76.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-29.6%
0-19.6%

Burnley vs Bristol City stats

Burnley and Bristol City recent form

newest first
Burnley DLDLDD
Bristol City WWDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Burnley and Bristol City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Burnley record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bristol City record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Burnley vs Bristol City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9Burnley wins 1Draws 0Bristol City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-29BurnleyBristol CityChampionship1-0
2024-11-23Bristol CityBurnleyChampionship0-1
2023-04-29Bristol CityBurnleyChampionship1-2
2022-09-17BurnleyBristol CityChampionship2-1
2017-01-28BurnleyBristol CityFA Cup2-0
2015-12-28BurnleyBristol CityChampionship4-0
2015-08-29Bristol CityBurnleyChampionship1-2
2013-04-06BurnleyBristol CityChampionship3-1
2012-10-23Bristol CityBurnleyChampionship3-4
2012-04-28BurnleyBristol CityChampionship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Burnley vs Bristol City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 26.0%, away 25.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.85 3.60 3.95
1xBet 1.94 3.55 3.69
Bet365 1.95 3.50 3.75
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.70
Betano 1.87 3.70 4.05
Betfair 1.91 3.60 3.90
Dafabet 1.91 3.70 4.10
Marathonbet 1.92 3.55 3.70
Pinnacle 2.02 3.73 3.68
SBO 1.89 3.13 3.32
Unibet 1.81 3.60 4.10
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.12
X 3.55 ▼ -0.05
2 3.70 ▼ -0.33

11 snapshots recorded, from .