Southampton
vs
Bristol City
4 – 1 Full time
| 38′ | Cyle Larin | ||
| 45′ | Flynn DownesCameron Bragg | ||
| 54′ | Lisav Naif Eissat | ||
| 58′ | Yu HirakawaJed Wallace | ||
| 58′ | Dominic BallardSam Greenwood | ||
| 61′ | Cyle Larin | ||
| 66′ | lorent tolaj | ||
| 69′ | Léo ScienzaTom Fellows | ||
| 77′ | George TannerTomi Horvat | ||
| 78′ | Rio CardinesCameron Pring | ||
| 78′ | Cyle LarinDivin Mubama | ||
| 82′ | Kuryu Matsuki | ||
| 83′ | lorent tolajElijah Adebayo | ||
| 85′ | Finn Azaz | ||
| 88′ | Ryan ManningWelington | ||
| 88′ | Finn AzazLewis Dobbin | ||
| 89′ | Sam Greenwood |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 475 | Accurate passes | 343 |
Southampton vs Bristol City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Bristol City
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 23.8% | 25.3% |
| Market | 56.6% | 23.0% | 20.4% |
| Final | 55.2% | 23.2% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -5.7% | +0.8% | +4.9% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.35.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and Bristol City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Southampton and Bristol City attack and defence ratings
Southampton
Bristol City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Southampton vs Bristol City: result vs prediction
Southampton 4 – 1 Bristol City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs Bristol City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 55.2% | 1.81 | -5.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 55.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Bristol City | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Southampton vs Bristol City stats
Southampton and Bristol City recent form
| Southampton |
WDDWLW |
| Bristol City |
WWWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and Bristol City going into this match
Southampton record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Bristol City record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Southampton vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Southampton | Bristol City | England Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Bristol City | Southampton | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-13 | Bristol City | Southampton | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-11-29 | Southampton | Bristol City | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2013-09-24 | Southampton | Bristol City | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2011-12-30 | Southampton | Bristol City | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2011-11-26 | Bristol City | Southampton | Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs Bristol City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.3%, draw 23.5%, away 20.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.45 |
| 888Sport | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.35 | 4.64 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.74 | 4.25 |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .