Wrexham
vs
Southampton
2 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | Cyle Larin | ||
| 35′ | Kieffer Moore | ||
| 45′ | Léo ScienzaSamuel Edozie | ||
| 50′ | James Ward-Prowse | ||
| 65′ | Ben SheafMatty James | ||
| 69′ | Nathan Wood-Gordon | ||
| 72′ | Kieffer MooreSam Smith | ||
| 76′ | Kuryu MatsukiTom Fellows | ||
| 86′ | Dominic Hyam | ||
| 86′ | Cyle LarinDivin Mubama | ||
| 87′ | Josh WindassLewis O'Brien | ||
| 89′ | Keven Schlotterbeck | ||
| 90′ | Ryan Manning | ||
| 90′ | James BreeLewis Dobbin | ||
| 90′ | Flynn Downes |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 3 |
| 257 | Accurate passes | 598 |
Wrexham vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Southampton
| Probability | Wrexham | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.0% | 20.2% | 63.8% |
| Market | 33.6% | 26.9% | 39.5% |
| Final | 29.2% | 25.2% | 45.6% |
| Edge | -17.6% | -6.7% | +24.3% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below the model: +24.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wrexham and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Wrexham and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Wrexham
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wrexham vs Southampton: result vs prediction
Wrexham 2 – 1 Southampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wrexham vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 45.6% | 2.19 | +24.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 29.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Southampton | 45.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% |
| No | 37.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 42.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% |
Wrexham vs Southampton stats
Wrexham and Southampton recent form
| Wrexham |
LDDWLD |
| Southampton |
WWDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wrexham and Southampton going into this match
Wrexham record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Southampton record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Wrexham vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Wrexham | Southampton | England Championship | 1-5 |
| 2025-08-09 | Southampton | Wrexham | England Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wrexham vs Southampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 26.9%, away 39.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.44 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.81 | 3.44 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.65 | 2.46 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 3.06 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .