Derby
vs
Wrexham
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Sondre Langas | ||
| 9′ | Sammie Szmodics | ||
| 15′ | Josh WindassOliver Rathbone | ||
| 52′ | Ryan Hedges | ||
| 64′ | Lewis O'BrienSam Smith | ||
| 64′ | Issa KaboreDanny Imray | ||
| 71′ | Oliver Rathbone | ||
| 72′ | Mohammed FuseiniHenrik Wendel Meister | ||
| 72′ | Sammie SzmodicsRhian Brewster | ||
| 74′ | Alex Mowatt | ||
| 84′ | Bobby ClarkOscar Fraulo | ||
| 84′ | Carlton MorrisLars-Jørgen Salvesen | ||
| 85′ | Zak VynerGeorge Dobson | ||
| 85′ | Jacques EkomiéRyan·Longman | ||
| 88′ | Oliver Rathbone | ||
| 90′ | Kieffer Moore |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 377 |
Derby vs Wrexham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Wrexham
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.5% | 28.5% | 32.0% |
| Market | 32.0% | 28.6% | 39.4% |
| Final | 33.9% | 28.6% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.0% | -1.9% |
Why Wrexham
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Wrexham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Derby and Wrexham attack and defence ratings
Derby
Wrexham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derby vs Wrexham: result vs prediction
Derby 1 – 1 Wrexham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Wrexham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 37.5% | 2.66 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 33.9% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Wrexham | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wrexham win | 14.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 68.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Derby vs Wrexham stats
Derby and Wrexham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Wrexham going into this match
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wrexham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Derby vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Derby | Wrexham | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Wrexham | Derby | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Wrexham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 28.6%, away 39.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.91 | 3.26 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 2.90 | 3.26 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 3.02 | 3.43 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 3.09 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
41 snapshots recorded, from .