Derby
vs
Wrexham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Derby
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Derby vs Wrexham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Wrexham
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.5% | 28.5% | 32.0% |
| Market | 34.7% | 28.6% | 36.6% |
| Final | 35.9% | 28.6% | 35.5% |
| Edge | +4.8% | -0.1% | -4.7% |
Why Derby
- The market prices Derby below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Derby vs Wrexham match preview
Derby faces Wrexham in the England Championship with both teams showing mixed recent form. Derby's last six matches include three losses, one win, and two draws, while Wrexham has secured two wins, two draws, and one loss in their recent outings. The probabilities for this match suggest a closely contested game, with Derby at 36%, Wrexham at 35%, and a draw at 29%.
The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Derby at 1.40 compared to Wrexham's 1.24. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Derby, which has a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Derby and Wrexham team news
Derby news
- C. Forsyth — knee injury
- D. Murkin — hamstring injury
- F. Bilbija — back injury
- H. Meister — concussion
- J. Widell Zetterstrom — knee injury
- M. Clarke — calf injury
- P. Agyemang — achilles tendon injury
Wrexham news
- G. Thomason — thigh injury
- L. Cacace — calf injury
- M. Cleworth — muscle injury
- N. Broadhead — thigh injury
- O. Rathbone — ankle injury
- S. Revan — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Wrexham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Derby and Wrexham attack and defence ratings
Derby
Wrexham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Wrexham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 35.9% | 2.78 | +4.8% | 2.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 35.9% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Wrexham | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derby win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Derby vs Wrexham stats
Derby and Wrexham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Wrexham season so far
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wrexham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Derby vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Derby | Wrexham | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Wrexham | Derby | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Wrexham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 28.6%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 2.99 | 2.37 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .