QPR
vs
Derby
Garuda Lions Prediction: QPR
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
QPR vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: QPR vs Derby
| Probability | QPR | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 29.1% | 22.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.4% | 29.1% | 22.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why QPR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
QPR vs Derby match preview
QPR faces Derby in the Championship, with QPR holding a 48% probability of winning, while Derby stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of QPR, occurring with a 12% likelihood. The expected goals for QPR are 1.45, compared to Derby's 0.91, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, QPR has recorded three draws followed by a loss and two wins, while Derby's form shows a draw, three losses, and one win. Historically, in their last two encounters, QPR has not secured a victory against Derby, who has won both matches. The model suggests a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
QPR and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
QPR and Derby attack and defence ratings
QPR
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
QPR vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 48.4% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 48.4% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Derby | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
QPR vs Derby stats
QPR and Derby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
QPR and Derby season so far
QPR record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | QPR | Derby | England Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Derby | QPR | England Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.