QPR
vs
Derby
4 – 1 Full time
| 12′ | Sondre LangasRyan Nyambe | ||
| 18′ | Alfie Lloyd | ||
| 22′ | Nicolas Madsen | ||
| 24′ | D. Ozoh | ||
| 28′ | John Eustace | ||
| 44′ | Sammie Szmodics | ||
| 45′ | Harvey Vale | ||
| 45′ | D. OzohLewis Travis | ||
| 45′ | Mohammed FuseiniHenrik Wendel Meister | ||
| 56′ | Henrik Wendel Meister | ||
| 57′ | Harvey Vale | ||
| 60′ | Glen Kamara | ||
| 62′ | Rayan Jawad KolliRichard Kone | ||
| 62′ | Alfie LloydJonathan Varane | ||
| 62′ | Harvey ValeKwame Poku | ||
| 63′ | Carlton MorrisLars-Jørgen Salvesen | ||
| 68′ | Paul Smyth | ||
| 70′ | Sammie SzmodicsFilip Bilbija | ||
| 72′ | Boy KemperAmadou Salif Mbengue | ||
| 77′ | Paul SmythLeon Scarlett | ||
| 90′ | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 360 | Accurate passes | 366 |
QPR vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: QPR vs Derby
| Probability | QPR | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 29.6% | 22.3% |
| Market | 56.4% | 24.5% | 19.1% |
| Final | 54.3% | 25.7% | 19.9% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +1.3% | +0.8% |
Why QPR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.89.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
QPR and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
QPR and Derby attack and defence ratings
QPR
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
QPR vs Derby: result vs prediction
QPR 4 – 1 Derby
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
QPR vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 54.3% | 1.84 | -2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 54.3% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Derby | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
QPR vs Derby stats
QPR and Derby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
QPR and Derby going into this match
QPR record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR vs Derby head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | QPR | Derby | England Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Derby | QPR | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-14 | QPR | Derby | Championship | 4-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Derby | QPR | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-18 | QPR | Derby | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-29 | Derby | QPR | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-01-23 | QPR | Derby | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2020-11-04 | Derby | QPR | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2020-02-25 | QPR | Derby | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-30 | Derby | QPR | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
QPR vs Derby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 24.5%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.85 | 4.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.05 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.98 | 5.01 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.66 | 4.79 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .