Derby
vs
Stoke City
0 – 1 Full time
| 38′ | Eric Junior BocatLuca Bombino | ||
| 45′ | Jack McglynnGeorge Hirst | ||
| 49′ | Luke Graham | ||
| 52′ | Lewis TravisRhian Brewster | ||
| 68′ | Bosun LawalMaksym Taloverov | ||
| 68′ | Lamine CisséRóbert Boženík | ||
| 73′ | Mohammed FuseiniHenrik Wendel Meister | ||
| 76′ | D. Ozoh | ||
| 87′ | Bobby ClarkCorey Blackett-Taylor | ||
| 87′ | Ryan HedgesFilip Bilbija | ||
| 87′ | Sammie SzmodicsLars-Jørgen Salvesen | ||
| 87′ | Justin DevennyJunior Tchamadeu |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 296 | Accurate passes | 245 |
Derby vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Stoke City
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.7% | 24.2% | 51.1% |
| Market | 32.8% | 27.9% | 39.3% |
| Final | 30.8% | 26.9% | 42.3% |
| Edge | -8.1% | -3.7% | +11.8% |
Why Stoke City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stoke City below the model: +11.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Derby and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Derby
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derby vs Stoke City: result vs prediction
Derby 0 – 1 Stoke City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 42.3% | 2.36 | +11.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 30.8% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Stoke City | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Derby vs Stoke City stats
Derby and Stoke City recent form
| Derby |
LDDLLL |
| Stoke City |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Stoke City going into this match
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Derby vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Derby | Stoke City | England Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Stoke City | Derby | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Derby | Stoke City | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Stoke City | Derby | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-22 | Derby | Stoke City | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2021-12-30 | Stoke City | Derby | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-09-18 | Derby | Stoke City | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2021-03-20 | Stoke City | Derby | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2020-12-12 | Derby | Stoke City | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-31 | Derby | Stoke City | Championship | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 27.8%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.36 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.36 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.54 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.71 | 3.05 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .