Sheffield Utd
vs
Derby
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheffield Utd
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Sheffield Utd vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sheffield Utd vs Derby
| Probability | Sheffield Utd | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.0% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sheffield Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby match preview
Sheffield Utd is favored in their upcoming match against Derby, with a 63% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Sheffield Utd's expected goals stand at 1.97, while Derby's is significantly lower at 0.83. The model also indicates a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, Sheffield Utd has had a mixed performance with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Derby has struggled, recording one draw and five losses in the same period. The head-to-head record shows each team with one win in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sheffield Utd and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Sheffield Utd and Derby attack and defence ratings
Sheffield Utd
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sheffield Utd vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 63.0% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Derby | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win | 39.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Sheffield Utd vs Derby stats
Sheffield Utd and Derby recent form
| Sheffield Utd |
WLWLLL |
| Derby |
LLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sheffield Utd and Derby season so far
Sheffield Utd record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Derby | Sheffield Utd | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Sheffield Utd | Derby | England Championship | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.