Wolverhampton Wanderers
vs
Watford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford
| Probability | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 19.8% | 12.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.9% | 19.8% | 12.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford match preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers are favored to win against Watford with a 68% probability, while a draw stands at 20% and Watford at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Wolverhampton's expected goals are 2.28, significantly higher than Watford's 0.88, indicating a strong offensive advantage.
In terms of recent form, Wolverhampton has alternated between wins and losses, with a record of W-L-L-W-L-W, while Watford has struggled, winning only one of their last six matches (W-L-L-L-L-W). The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 61%, and both teams scoring is at 54%, suggesting a potentially dynamic match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford attack and defence ratings
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Watford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 67.9% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Watford | 12.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 45.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford stats
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford recent form
| Wolverhampton Wanderers |
WLLWLW |
| Watford |
WLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford season so far
Wolverhampton Wanderers record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.