Bolton
vs
Middlesbrough
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bolton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Bolton vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolton vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Bolton | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 24.5% | 37.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.2% | 24.5% | 37.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Bolton vs Middlesbrough match preview
Bolton will face Middlesbrough in the Championship with both teams showing competitive form. Bolton has a 38% probability of winning, while Middlesbrough stands slightly ahead at 39%. The expected goals for Bolton are 1.87, just behind Middlesbrough's 1.89, indicating a closely matched encounter.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with a probability of 8%. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72%, and both teams scoring is projected at 73%. Recent form shows Bolton with two wins in their last six matches, while Middlesbrough has won three of their last six, suggesting they might have the edge in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolton and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
Bolton and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Bolton
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolton vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 38.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Middlesbrough | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% |
| No | 31.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolton win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Bolton vs Middlesbrough stats
Bolton and Middlesbrough recent form
| Bolton |
DWLWWL |
| Middlesbrough |
DWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolton and Middlesbrough season so far
Bolton record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.