West Ham
vs
Southampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Ham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
West Ham vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Ham vs Southampton
| Probability | West Ham | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.2% | 23.8% | 22.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.2% | 23.8% | 22.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why West Ham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.20.
West Ham vs Southampton match preview
West Ham hosts Southampton in the Championship with a 54% probability of victory for the home side, while the visitors have a 22% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of West Ham, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 61% chance for each team to find the net, contributing to a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, West Ham has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Southampton has a slightly better record with four wins, one loss, and one draw. Historically, in their last ten encounters, West Ham has secured four victories compared to Southampton's two, with four matches ending in a draw. The expected goals for West Ham stand at 1.96, while Southampton is projected at 1.20.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Ham and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
West Ham and Southampton attack and defence ratings
West Ham
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Ham vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 54.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Southampton | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% |
| No | 39.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
West Ham vs Southampton stats
West Ham and Southampton recent form
| West Ham |
WWDDLW |
| Southampton |
DWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Ham and Southampton season so far
West Ham record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
West Ham vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Southampton | West Ham | League Cup | 1-4 |
| 2025-04-19 | West Ham | Southampton | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Southampton | West Ham | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-02 | West Ham | Southampton | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-16 | Southampton | West Ham | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-03-02 | Southampton | West Ham | FA Cup | 3-1 |
| 2021-12-26 | West Ham | Southampton | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2021-09-11 | Southampton | West Ham | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-23 | West Ham | Southampton | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2020-12-29 | Southampton | West Ham | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.