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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 11

Southampton vs Bolton

0 – 0 Full time

41′Cyle LarinLewis Dobbin
44′Akin Famewo
45′Atsuki ItoRuben Rodrigues
45′Tom FellowsKuryu Matsuki
59′Cameron Bragg
61′Xavier SimonsEthan Erhahon
61′Thierry GaleKyliane Dong
73′WelingtonRyan Manning
73′Cameron BraggSamuel Edozie
73′Sam DalbyThelonius Bair
76′Lewis Brunt
83′Thelonius Bair
85′Kuryu Matsuki
87′Gaizka LarrazabalSamuel Iling
88′Luca Stephenson

St. Mary's Stadium, SouthamptonReferee: Matt Donohue

Southampton 64%
Draw 20%
Bolton 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 3
62 Possession % 38
5 Corners 3
8 Fouls 9
10 Offsides 0
3 Saves 2
529 Accurate passes 270

Southampton vs Bolton overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs Bolton

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySouthamptonDrawBolton
Model60.6%21.2%18.2%
Market64.6%19.6%15.8%
Final63.6%20.0%16.4%
Edge-4.0%+1.7%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Southampton

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Southampton ↓ / Bolton → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Southampton and Bolton expected goals

Southampton 2.26
Bolton 1.19

Total expected goals: 3.45

Southampton and Bolton attack and defence ratings

Southampton

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Bolton

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Southampton vs Bolton: result vs prediction

Southampton 0 – 0 Bolton

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Southampton vs Bolton markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Southampton 63.6% 1.57 -4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.1% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.6% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 39.4% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Southampton63.6%
Draw20.0%
Bolton16.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes63.1%
No36.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.6%
12 (either side)80.0%
X2 (draw or away)36.4%
Handicap -1Southampton win39.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss39.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.7%
1-19.4%
2-08.1%

Southampton vs Bolton stats

Southampton and Bolton recent form

newest first
Southampton WWLWWD
Bolton WLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Southampton and Bolton going into this match

league record before kick-off

Southampton record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Bolton record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Southampton vs Bolton head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Southampton vs Bolton odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.4%, draw 19.6%, away 16.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.80 5.81
Bet365 1.48 4.75 6.00
BetVictor 1.44 4.60 6.00
Betano 1.52 4.75 5.60
Betfair 1.44 4.75 5.50
Dafabet 1.50 5.00 5.80
Marathonbet 1.44 4.80 5.80
Pinnacle 1.46 5.04 6.16
SBO 1.42 4.18 4.94
William Hill 1.44 4.60 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▲ +0.04
X 4.78 ▼ -0.12
2 5.90 ▼ -0.60

7 snapshots recorded, from .