Norwich
vs
Southampton
0 – 1 Full time
| 15′ | Ryan Manning | ||
| 22′ | Flynn DownesCaspar Jander | ||
| 26′ | Zach Abbott | ||
| 45′ | Ryan ManningWelington | ||
| 45′ | Zach AbbottJames Bree | ||
| 48′ | Jacob Wright | ||
| 54′ | Kuryu Matsuki | ||
| 61′ | Anis Ben SlimaneParis Maghoma | ||
| 61′ | Mathias KvistgaardenJ. Makama | ||
| 70′ | Samuel EdozieCyle Larin | ||
| 72′ | Oscar SchwartauAnthony Musaba | ||
| 72′ | Andre BrooksAnte Crnac | ||
| 76′ | Jacob WrightSamuel Field | ||
| 77′ | Samuel Field | ||
| 82′ | Lewis DobbinDivin Mubama |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 362 | Accurate passes | 390 |
Norwich vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Norwich vs Southampton
| Probability | Norwich | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.6% | 19.2% | 58.2% |
| Market | 38.5% | 25.7% | 35.8% |
| Final | 34.5% | 24.1% | 41.4% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -1.6% | +5.6% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Norwich and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.31
Norwich and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Norwich
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Norwich vs Southampton: result vs prediction
Norwich 0 – 1 Southampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Norwich vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 41.4% | 2.42 | +5.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 34.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Southampton | 41.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% |
| No | 24.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 39.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Norwich vs Southampton stats
Norwich and Southampton recent form
| Norwich |
LLLLWW |
| Southampton |
WLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Norwich and Southampton going into this match
Norwich record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
Southampton record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Norwich vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Southampton | Norwich | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Norwich | Southampton | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Norwich | Southampton | League Cup | 0-3 |
| 2024-01-01 | Norwich | Southampton | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Southampton | Norwich | Championship | 4-4 |
| 2022-02-25 | Southampton | Norwich | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-20 | Norwich | Southampton | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2020-06-19 | Norwich | Southampton | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-12-04 | Southampton | Norwich | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2017-01-18 | Southampton | Norwich | FA Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Norwich vs Southampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 25.7%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.75 | 2.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.75 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.65 | 2.73 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.49 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .