Norwich
vs
Southampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Southampton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Norwich vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Norwich vs Southampton
| Probability | Norwich | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.9% | 18.6% | 54.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.9% | 18.6% | 54.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 2.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Norwich vs Southampton match preview
Norwich faces Southampton in the Championship, with the model predicting a 27% chance of a Norwich win, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 55% chance for Southampton to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 6% probability. The expected goals for Norwich stand at 2.01, while Southampton is projected at 2.80, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Recent form shows Norwich with three losses in their last six matches, while Southampton has recorded three wins in the same period. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 82%. In their last three encounters, Norwich has one win, whereas Southampton has won twice.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Norwich and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.81
Norwich and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Norwich
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Norwich vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 26.9% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Southampton | 54.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.7% |
| No | 18.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 36.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | |
| 2-3 | 6.0% |
Norwich vs Southampton stats
Norwich and Southampton recent form
| Norwich |
LLLWWL |
| Southampton |
LWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Norwich and Southampton season so far
Norwich record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Southampton record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Norwich vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Southampton | Norwich | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Norwich | Southampton | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Norwich | Southampton | League Cup | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.