Millwall
vs
Swansea
0 – 1 Full time
| 15′ | Jay Fulton | ||
| 23′ | Derek Mazou Sacko | ||
| 23′ | Vitor Matos | ||
| 44′ | Lyndon Dykes | ||
| 51′ | Zak Sturge | ||
| 64′ | Jordi Osei-TutuTristan Crama | ||
| 64′ | Jenson MetcalfeLuke Cundle | ||
| 65′ | Kyrell LisbieYanis Ali Issoufou | ||
| 65′ | Zan VipotnikRoss Stewart | ||
| 65′ | Elijah Justmelker widell | ||
| 65′ | Jay FultonGoncalo Franco | ||
| 77′ | Jenson SeeltStephen Welsh | ||
| 83′ | Filip Lissah | ||
| 84′ | Mark SykesAlfie Doughty | ||
| 84′ | Moussa Kounfolo YeoRonald Pereira Martins | ||
| 90′ | Ronald Pereira Martins | ||
| 90′ | Camiel NeghliD. Kelly |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 228 | Accurate passes | 269 |
Millwall vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Swansea
| Probability | Millwall | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 28.1% | 44.4% |
| Market | 39.1% | 28.3% | 32.6% |
| Final | 36.2% | 28.3% | 35.6% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -0.0% | +2.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millwall and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Millwall and Swansea attack and defence ratings
Millwall
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Millwall vs Swansea: result vs prediction
Millwall 0 – 1 Swansea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Millwall vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 36.2% | 2.76 | -2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 36.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Swansea | 35.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 11.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 72.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Millwall vs Swansea stats
Millwall and Swansea recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millwall and Swansea going into this match
Millwall record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Swansea record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Millwall | Swansea | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Swansea | Millwall | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Millwall | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Swansea | Millwall | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Swansea | Millwall | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Millwall | Swansea | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2023-03-14 | Millwall | Swansea | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-16 | Swansea | Millwall | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-05 | Millwall | Swansea | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-15 | Swansea | Millwall | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millwall vs Swansea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 28.3%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.32 | 2.85 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.32 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.31 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 3.08 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .