Millwall
vs
Swansea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millwall
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Millwall vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Swansea
| Probability | Millwall | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 27.0% | 46.3% |
| Market | 39.5% | 28.0% | 32.5% |
| Final | 36.3% | 27.7% | 35.9% |
| Edge | -12.8% | -1.0% | +13.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Millwall vs Swansea match preview
Millwall hosts Swansea in the Championship with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Millwall's last six matches include two draws, two losses, and a single win, while Swansea has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. The model indicates a close contest, with both teams holding a 36% probability of winning, and a 28% chance of a draw.
The expected goals suggest a slight advantage for Swansea at 1.61 compared to Millwall's 1.18. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Millwall, with a 7% probability. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millwall and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Millwall and Swansea attack and defence ratings
Millwall
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Millwall vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 36.3% | 2.75 | -12.8% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 36.3% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Swansea | 35.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 11.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.5% | |
| Loss | 73.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
Millwall vs Swansea stats
Millwall and Swansea recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millwall and Swansea season so far
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Swansea record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Millwall | Swansea | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Swansea | Millwall | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millwall vs Swansea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 28.0%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.30 | 2.87 |
| Dafabet | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .