Preston
vs
Millwall
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millwall
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Preston vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Preston vs Millwall
| Probability | Preston | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 25.3% | 45.4% |
| Market | 33.6% | 27.7% | 38.7% |
| Final | 32.5% | 27.1% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -4.3% | -2.4% | +6.7% |
Why Millwall
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.38.
- The market prices Millwall below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Preston vs Millwall match preview
Preston faces Millwall in the Championship on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a competitive match, with Millwall holding a slight edge at 38% probability of winning compared to Preston's 34% and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Preston projected to score 1.38 and Millwall 1.76.
Both teams have struggled for form recently, with Preston recording two losses in their last three matches and Millwall managing only one win in their last six. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Millwall, reflecting the teams' recent performances and head-to-head results, where Millwall has won once and drawn once in their last two encounters. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 61%, and both teams to score is at 63%.
Preston and Millwall team news
Preston news
- A. McCann — hamstring injury
- B. Potts — ankle injury
- T. Carroll — ankle injury
Millwall news
- C. De Norre — muscle injury
- J. Coburn — muscle injury
- L. Jensen — muscle injury
- M. Ivanovic — hamstring injury
- M. Luongo — knee injury
- R. Leonard — hamstring injury
- T. Crama — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Preston and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Preston and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Preston
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Preston vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 40.4% | 2.48 | +6.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preston | 32.5% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Millwall | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Preston vs Millwall stats
Preston and Millwall recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Preston and Millwall season so far
Preston record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Preston vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Preston | Millwall | England Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Millwall | Preston | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-18 | Preston | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Millwall | Preston | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Millwall | Preston | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Preston | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-15 | Millwall | Preston | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-12 | Preston | Millwall | Championship | 2-4 |
| 2022-04-15 | Preston | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-01 | Millwall | Preston | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Preston vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 27.7%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.34 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.73 | 3.34 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.51 | 2.47 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 3.08 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .