Bolton
vs
Stoke City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stoke City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Bolton vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bolton vs Stoke City
| Probability | Bolton | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.8% | 24.7% | 36.5% |
| Market | 34.5% | 28.2% | 37.3% |
| Final | 35.5% | 27.3% | 37.1% |
| Edge | +4.3% | -3.5% | -0.8% |
Why Stoke City
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bolton vs Stoke City match preview
Bolton faces Stoke City in the England Championship with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, with Bolton holding a 36% chance of victory, while Stoke City slightly edges ahead at 37%. The probabilities suggest a draw is less likely at 27%. The most probable scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Stoke City, occurring at an 8% likelihood.
Both teams exhibit strong scoring potential, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% probability that both teams will score. Recent form shows Bolton with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Stoke City has recorded four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. Expected goals are closely matched, with Bolton at 1.71 and Stoke City at 1.66.
Bolton and Stoke City team news
Bolton news
- C. Forino-Joseph — groin injury
- L. Brunt — hamstring injury
- L. Stephenson — muscle injury
Stoke City news
- A. Cresswell — knee injury
- E. Galbraith — injury
- S. Ingelsson — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bolton and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Bolton and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Bolton
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bolton vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 37.1% | 2.69 | -0.8% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 35.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Stoke City | 37.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% |
| No | 32.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 63.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Bolton vs Stoke City stats
Bolton and Stoke City recent form
| Bolton |
WWLLLL |
| Stoke City |
WWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bolton and Stoke City season so far
Bolton record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Stoke City record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Bolton vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | Bolton | Stoke City | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2018-12-29 | Bolton | Stoke City | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2018-10-02 | Stoke City | Bolton | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2012-05-13 | Stoke City | Bolton | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2011-11-06 | Bolton | Stoke City | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2011-01-15 | Stoke City | Bolton | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2010-10-16 | Bolton | Stoke City | Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bolton vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 28.2%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.28 | 2.49 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.28 | 2.49 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.32 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.06 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .