Watford
vs
Burnley
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burnley
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Watford vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs Burnley
| Probability | Watford | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 30.2% | 36.7% |
| Market | 31.3% | 27.1% | 41.6% |
| Final | 31.8% | 27.9% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +3.1% | -4.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Watford vs Burnley match preview
Watford faces Burnley in the Championship on October 10, 2026. The match sees Watford with a 33% chance of winning, while Burnley holds a 39% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Burnley, with a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Watford recording two losses, one win, one loss, and a draw in their last five matches, while Burnley has struggled with six winless games, including five draws.
In terms of expected goals, Watford is projected to score 1.17, while Burnley is slightly ahead with 1.24. The chances of over 2.5 goals are at 43%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 50%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in the predictions.
Watford and Burnley team news
Watford news
- E. Bove — knee injury
- J. Ngakia — thigh injury
- J. Zemura — muscle injury
- K. Baah — knock
- M. Bola — hamstring injury
- T. Akomeah — lacking match fitness
Burnley news
- A. Barnes — muscle injury
- A. Ramsey — hamstring injury
- B. Humphreys — muscle injury
- D. Satpaev — hamstring injury
- E. Agyei — muscle injury
- H. Ekdal — injury
- H. Mejbri — hamstring injury
- J. Banel — muscle injury
- J. Beyer — hamstring injury
- J. Cullen — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Watford and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Watford and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Watford
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Watford vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 40.4% | 2.48 | -4.9% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Watford | 31.8% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Burnley | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% |
| No | 49.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 63.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.9% |
Watford vs Burnley stats
Watford and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Watford and Burnley season so far
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Watford | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Burnley | Watford | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-14 | Burnley | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-12 | Watford | Burnley | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-30 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2022-02-05 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2020-06-25 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2019-11-23 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-01-19 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-19 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Watford vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 27.1%, away 41.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.46 | 2.25 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.46 | 2.23 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.52 | 2.31 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.14 | 2.11 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .