Watford
vs
Burnley
0 – 4 Full time
| 13′ | Jacob Bruun Larsen | ||
| 19′ | Zeki Amdouni | ||
| 25′ | Reo Hatate | ||
| 35′ | Iker BravoOthmane Maamma | ||
| 45′ | Soumaula CoulibalyJordan Zemura | ||
| 45′ | Luca KjerrumgaardMartin Payero | ||
| 60′ | Amin NabizadaMyron Boadu | ||
| 62′ | Zeki AmdouniMarcus Edwards | ||
| 63′ | Largie RamazaniJamie Vardy | ||
| 69′ | Mamadou DoumbiaRocco Vata | ||
| 74′ | Jacob Bruun LarsenDastan Satpaev | ||
| 84′ | Max AlleyneArmando Broja | ||
| 87′ | Marcus Edwards |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 4 | Saves | 6 |
| 397 | Accurate passes | 349 |
Watford vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs Burnley
| Probability | Watford | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 30.2% | 36.7% |
| Market | 33.5% | 27.4% | 39.1% |
| Final | 33.4% | 28.1% | 38.5% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.7% | -0.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Watford and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Watford and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Watford
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Watford vs Burnley: result vs prediction
Watford 0 – 4 Burnley
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Watford vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Watford | 33.4% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Burnley | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.3% |
| No | 49.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 63.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.9% |
Watford vs Burnley stats
Watford and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Watford and Burnley going into this match
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Watford | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Burnley | Watford | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-14 | Burnley | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-12 | Watford | Burnley | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-30 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2022-02-05 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2020-06-25 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2019-11-23 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-01-19 | Watford | Burnley | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-19 | Burnley | Watford | Premier League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Watford vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 27.4%, away 39.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.44 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.44 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 2.86 | 3.56 | 2.49 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.20 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
41 snapshots recorded, from .