England Championship
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
West Brom
vs
Birmingham
0 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Rabby Nzingoula | ||
| 31′ | Alex Cochrane | ||
| 41′ | August Priske | ||
| 55′ | Liam MillarPatrick Roberts | ||
| 69′ | August PriskeMarvin Ducksch | ||
| 69′ | Jhon Elmer Solís RomeroMax Bird | ||
| 70′ | Aune HeggeboBarney Stewart | ||
| 75′ | Carlos Vicente | ||
| 79′ | Jay Stansfield | ||
| 79′ | Felix Horn MyhreIsaac Price | ||
| 80′ | Toby CollyerHarry Whitwell | ||
| 85′ | Jay StansfieldTaylor·Gardner Hickman | ||
| 85′ | Carlos VicenteDemarai Gray | ||
| 89′ | J. Morgan | ||
| 89′ | Bright Osayi-Samuel |
West Brom
40%
Draw
28%
Birmingham
31%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 2 |
| 418 | Accurate passes | 335 |
West Brom vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Birmingham
| Probability | West Brom | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 27.0% | 24.6% |
| Market | 37.5% | 28.9% | 33.5% |
| Final | 40.3% | 28.5% | 31.3% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -0.5% | -2.2% |
Why West Brom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.10.
- The market prices West Brom below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
West Brom and Birmingham expected goals
West Brom
1.62
Birmingham
1.10
Total expected goals: 2.72
West Brom and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
West Brom
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Birmingham
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
West Brom vs Birmingham: result vs prediction
West Brom 0 – 1 Birmingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Brom vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 40.3% | 2.48 | +2.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 40.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Birmingham | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
West Brom vs Birmingham stats
West Brom and Birmingham recent form
| West Brom |
LDWWDL |
| Birmingham |
DWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Brom and Birmingham going into this match
West Brom record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Brom vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3West Brom wins
2Draws
5Birmingham wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Birmingham | West Brom | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-26 | West Brom | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-03 | Birmingham | West Brom | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2024-02-03 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-06 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-10 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-14 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2022-04-03 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-15 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-31 | Birmingham | West Brom | Friendlies Clubs | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
West Brom vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 28.9%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.24 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.24 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.34 | 2.92 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 2.99 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.50 ▲ +0.26
X
3.25 ▼ -0.03
2
2.80 ▼ -0.30
41 snapshots recorded, from .