West Brom
vs
Birmingham
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Brom
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
West Brom vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Birmingham
| Probability | West Brom | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 27.1% | 24.6% |
| Market | 39.5% | 28.7% | 31.8% |
| Final | 41.7% | 28.3% | 30.0% |
| Edge | +8.9% | -1.6% | -7.2% |
Why West Brom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.10.
- The market prices West Brom below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
West Brom vs Birmingham match preview
In the upcoming Championship match between West Brom and Birmingham, West Brom is favored with a 43% probability of winning, while Birmingham has a 29% chance, and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of West Brom, occurring with a 10% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 55% likelihood, and there is a 51% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows West Brom with a mixed record of L-D-W-W-D-L, while Birmingham has been more consistent with D-W-L-D-D-W. In their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, resulting in two draws. The expected goals for West Brom is 1.62, compared to Birmingham's 1.10, indicating a slight edge for the home side in terms of offensive output.
West Brom and Birmingham team news
West Brom news
- M. Johnston — broken leg
- N. Galves — knee injury
Birmingham news
- D. Gray — muscle injury
- M. Bird — calf injury
- M. Leonard — achilles tendon injury
- S. Wright — off the roster
- T. Gardner-Hickman — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Brom and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
West Brom and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
West Brom
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Brom vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 41.7% | 2.40 | +8.9% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 41.7% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Birmingham | 30.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
West Brom vs Birmingham stats
West Brom and Birmingham recent form
| West Brom |
LDWWDL |
| Birmingham |
DWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Brom and Birmingham season so far
West Brom record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Brom vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Birmingham | West Brom | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-26 | West Brom | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-03 | Birmingham | West Brom | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2024-02-03 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-06 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-10 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-14 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2022-04-03 | Birmingham | West Brom | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-15 | West Brom | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-31 | Birmingham | West Brom | Friendlies Clubs | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
West Brom vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 28.7%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.28 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.28 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.28 | 2.99 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 2.96 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .