Blackburn
vs
Cardiff
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cardiff
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Blackburn vs Cardiff overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackburn vs Cardiff
| Probability | Blackburn | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.1% | 24.9% | 34.0% |
| Market | 35.1% | 26.7% | 38.2% |
| Final | 36.6% | 26.3% | 37.1% |
| Edge | +6.0% | -1.8% | -4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Blackburn vs Cardiff match preview
Blackburn faces Cardiff in the Championship, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Blackburn's last six matches include two draws and four losses, while Cardiff has secured one win and two draws in their latest fixtures. The model indicates a balanced matchup, with Blackburn and Cardiff each holding a 37% probability of winning, and a 26% chance of a draw.
The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Blackburn projected to score 1.74 and Cardiff 1.57. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 64%, and both teams to score is at 66%. The most probable scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Cardiff, with an 8% likelihood. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting the uncertainty in the match outcome.
Blackburn and Cardiff team news
Blackburn news
- A. Forshaw — hip injury
- A. Kargbo — muscle injury
- L. Miller — achilles tendon injury
- M. Jorgensen — hamstring injury
- M. Litherland — muscle injury
- S. Wharton — achilles tendon injury
- Y. Ohashi — hamstring injury
- Y. Ribeiro — hamstring injury
Cardiff news
- C. Chambers — knee injury
- D. Lawlor — muscle injury
- I. Davies — muscle injury
- R. Colwill — health problems
- W. Fish — hernia
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackburn and Cardiff expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Blackburn and Cardiff attack and defence ratings
Blackburn
Cardiff
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackburn vs Cardiff markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 37.1% | 2.69 | -4.2% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 36.6% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Cardiff | 37.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Blackburn vs Cardiff stats
Blackburn and Cardiff recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackburn and Cardiff season so far
Blackburn record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Cardiff record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn vs Cardiff head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Blackburn | Cardiff | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-09 | Cardiff | Blackburn | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-20 | Cardiff | Blackburn | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Blackburn | Cardiff | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-27 | Blackburn | Cardiff | League Cup | 5-2 |
| 2023-01-01 | Blackburn | Cardiff | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-04 | Cardiff | Blackburn | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-01-15 | Cardiff | Blackburn | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Blackburn | Cardiff | Championship | 5-1 |
| 2021-04-10 | Cardiff | Blackburn | Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Blackburn vs Cardiff odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 26.7%, away 38.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.75 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.64 | 2.43 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 3.23 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .