Cardiff
vs
Watford
5 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | Martin Payero | ||
| 11′ | Jack Moylan | ||
| 29′ | Dylan LawlorWilliam Fish | ||
| 35′ | Jack Moylan | ||
| 41′ | Matthew Pollock | ||
| 45′ | Ollie·Tanner | ||
| 56′ | Myron BoaduMamadou Doumbia | ||
| 56′ | Jordan ZemuraMarc Bola | ||
| 56′ | Stephy MavididiAmin Nabizada | ||
| 67′ | Martin PayeroIker Bravo | ||
| 69′ | Jack MoylanDavid Turnbull | ||
| 69′ | Christopher WillockCalum Scanlon | ||
| 69′ | Othmane MaammaKrépin Diatta | ||
| 73′ | Edo Kayembe | ||
| 82′ | Ollie·TannerCallum Robinson | ||
| 82′ | Joel BaganIsaak Davies | ||
| 85′ | Callum Robinson | ||
| 86′ | Amin Nabizada | ||
| 86′ | Perry Tian Hee Ng | ||
| 87′ | Hector Kyprianou | ||
| 90′ | Hector Kyprianou |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 400 | Accurate passes | 257 |
Cardiff vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Watford
| Probability | Cardiff | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.5% | 19.0% | 11.5% |
| Market | 57.4% | 22.2% | 20.3% |
| Final | 60.5% | 21.4% | 18.1% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.8% | -2.2% |
Why Cardiff
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.88.
- The market prices Cardiff below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff and Watford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Cardiff and Watford attack and defence ratings
Cardiff
Watford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cardiff vs Watford: result vs prediction
Cardiff 5 – 1 Watford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 60.5% | 1.65 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 60.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Watford | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 47.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 30.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
Cardiff vs Watford stats
Cardiff and Watford recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff and Watford going into this match
Cardiff record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Cardiff vs Watford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | Cardiff | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-29 | Watford | Cardiff | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Watford | Cardiff | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Cardiff | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-19 | Watford | Cardiff | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2022-11-02 | Cardiff | Watford | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-03-13 | Cardiff | Watford | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2020-12-05 | Watford | Cardiff | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2019-02-22 | Cardiff | Watford | Premier League | 1-5 |
| 2018-12-15 | Watford | Cardiff | Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cardiff vs Watford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 22.2%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.25 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.25 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.49 | 4.91 |
| SBO | 1.65 | 3.86 | 4.15 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .