Cardiff
vs
Watford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cardiff
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Cardiff vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Watford
| Probability | Cardiff | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 21.0% | 13.5% |
| Market | 51.4% | 23.7% | 24.9% |
| Final | 54.9% | 23.0% | 22.1% |
| Edge | +14.1% | -2.7% | -11.4% |
Why Cardiff
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.91.
- The market prices Cardiff below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cardiff vs Watford match preview
Cardiff enters the match against Watford with a probability of 55% to win, while Watford has a 22% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0 in favor of Cardiff, with an 11% likelihood. Cardiff's expected goals stand at 2.18, significantly higher than Watford's 0.91, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Cardiff with a mixed record of one win, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Watford has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in the same period. The probabilities also suggest a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff and Watford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Cardiff and Watford attack and defence ratings
Cardiff
Watford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 54.9% | 1.82 | +14.1% | 1.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 54.9% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Watford | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 42.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Cardiff vs Watford stats
Cardiff and Watford recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff and Watford season so far
Cardiff record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Cardiff vs Watford head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Cardiff vs Watford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.4%, draw 23.7%, away 24.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 4.10 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .