Stoke City
vs
Middlesbrough
Garuda Lions Prediction: Middlesbrough
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Stoke City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 24.6% | 32.4% |
| Market | 26.0% | 25.7% | 48.2% |
| Final | 30.3% | 25.4% | 44.3% |
| Edge | +17.0% | -1.1% | -15.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough match preview
Stoke City will host Middlesbrough in an England Championship clash on October 13, 2026. The model indicates a 30% probability of a Stoke City victory, while Middlesbrough has a 44% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Middlesbrough, with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown offensive potential, with Stoke City expected to score 1.80 goals and Middlesbrough 1.55.
Recent form highlights a mixed performance for both teams; Stoke City has recorded three wins in their last five matches, while Middlesbrough has two wins in the same period. In their last two encounters, Stoke City has not secured a win, with Middlesbrough winning once and one match ending in a draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 65%, and both teams to score stands at 67%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stoke City and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Stoke City and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 44.3% | 2.26 | -15.8% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 30.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Middlesbrough | 44.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 67.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough stats
Stoke City and Middlesbrough recent form
| Stoke City |
WWDWWL |
| Middlesbrough |
DDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stoke City and Middlesbrough season so far
Stoke City record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Stoke City | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | England Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.0%, draw 25.7%, away 48.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.56 | 3.60 | 1.94 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.75 | 1.98 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .