Stoke City
vs
Middlesbrough
2 – 3 Full time
| 48′ | Callum Brittain | ||
| 50′ | Neto Borges | ||
| 51′ | Sebastian Berhalter | ||
| 64′ | Sebastian BerhalterRiley McGree | ||
| 64′ | Jeremy SarmientoTommy Conway | ||
| 67′ | Lamine CisséGeorge Hirst | ||
| 67′ | Bae Jun-hoJustin Devenny | ||
| 68′ | Luke Graham | ||
| 73′ | will lankshear | ||
| 77′ | will lankshearKyle Joseph | ||
| 78′ | Amario Cozier-DuberryMax Arfsten | ||
| 79′ | Junior TchamadeuBosun Lawal | ||
| 79′ | El Hadji SoumareRóbert Boženík | ||
| 79′ | Eric Junior BocatLuca Bombino | ||
| 85′ | Róbert Boženík | ||
| 90′ | Neto Borges |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 34 | Possession % | 66 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 7 | Saves | 0 |
| 202 | Accurate passes | 491 |
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Stoke City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.1% | 25.7% | 32.2% |
| Market | 26.7% | 25.9% | 47.4% |
| Final | 30.6% | 25.8% | 43.6% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -0.1% | -3.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stoke City and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Stoke City and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: result vs prediction
Stoke City 2 – 3 Middlesbrough
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 43.6% | 2.29 | -3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 30.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Middlesbrough | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 67.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough stats
Stoke City and Middlesbrough recent form
| Stoke City |
WWWDWW |
| Middlesbrough |
WDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stoke City and Middlesbrough going into this match
Stoke City record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | Stoke City | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-25 | Stoke City | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-27 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | League Cup | 0-5 |
| 2024-03-02 | Stoke City | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2023-03-14 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-17 | Stoke City | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-30 | Middlesbrough | Stoke City | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 25.9%, away 47.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.68 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 3.68 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 3.73 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 3.23 | 3.32 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .