Middlesbrough
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Middlesbrough
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Probability | Middlesbrough | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.4% | 25.8% | 37.8% |
| Market | 42.5% | 25.6% | 31.9% |
| Final | 40.9% | 25.7% | 33.4% |
| Edge | -6.0% | +0.2% | +5.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers match preview
Middlesbrough faces Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship with a probability of 42% for a Middlesbrough win, while Wolverhampton's chances stand at 32%, and a draw is at 26%. The expected goals are closely matched, with Middlesbrough at 1.55 and Wolverhampton at 1.58, indicating a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Middlesbrough, with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Middlesbrough with two draws followed by a win, while Wolverhampton has alternated between victories and losses, winning their last match. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 61%, and both teams scoring is at 64%, suggesting an expectation of an engaging match with potential for multiple goals. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers team news
Middlesbrough news
- A. Jones — calf injury
Wolverhampton Wanderers news
- R. Jimenez — knee injury
- R. Said — knee injury
- Y. Mosquera — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 40.9% | 2.44 | -6.0% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 40.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 63.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers stats
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
| Middlesbrough |
DDWLWD |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers |
WLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers season so far
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Wolverhampton Wanderers record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-30 | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2017-08-05 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2016-03-04 | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2015-10-24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2015-09-22 | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | League Cup | 3-0 |
| 2015-04-14 | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2014-10-21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2013-03-30 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Middlesbrough | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2012-12-15 | Middlesbrough | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 25.6%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.69 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.26 | 2.73 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .